Florian Bieber:

Mali koraci i (ne tako) velika očekivanja. Bilješke sa samita u Beču

Samit u Beču možda nije mogao apostrofirati korijen autoritarnosti u regionu, ali kad je Gruevski postigao dva pogotka na fudbalskoj utakmici političara sa Zapadnog Balkana protiv EU, vidjela se izvjesna ironija, i možda je simptomatično da neko ko je bio pod jakim pritiskom prije nekoliko mjeseci i jasno nastupa kao neko ko je razvukao demokratske principe i vladavinu prava može lako ubaciti loptu u gol EU tima u Beču.

03.09.2015.

Florian Bieber:

Small steps and (not so) great expectations. Notes from the Vienna Summit

The Vienna summit could not address the creeping authoritarianism in the region, but when Gruevski scored two goals in the football game of politicians from the Western Balkans against the EU, there is certain irony and maybe symptomatic that somebody who was under strong pressure a few months ago and who clearly appears to have stretched democratic principles and rule of law can be leisurly kick a ball in the goal of the EU team in Vienna.

03.09.2015.

Bečki Hofburg je sjajno mjesto za svaki samit. Kad su se vlade Zapadnog Balkana sastale sa zvaničnicima EU i predstavnicima nekih zemalja članica EU, ponajviše iz Njemačke i Austrije, ali takođe i Hrvatske, Slovenije i Italije, planirani signal bio je pokazati da je proširenje EU živo, baš kao i regionalna saradnja. U poređenju s prvim takvim samitom prošle godine u Berlinu, samit u Beču je uslijedio nakon velikog broja regionalnih sastanaka te ne čudi šala nekih kako se premijeri iz regiona viđaju češće nego njihovi ministri. Regionalna saradnja dobila je dodatni poticaj, iako proširenje EU za većinu u regionu nije ništa bliže nego prije godinu dana. Nepobitno je, međutim, da ima i obnovljenog dinamizma. Izbjeglička kriza možda dominira u izvještavanju i zvaničnoj diskusiji, ali i naglašava apsurdnost činjenice da Zapadni Balkan ostaje izvan EU. Svjedoci smo kako desetine hiljada izbjeglica prelaze EU i jednu zemlju Schengena da bi se provukle kroz dvije zemlje koje nisu u EU – Makedoniju i Srbiju – da bi došle u jednu drugu zemlju Schengena – Mađarsku – koja podiže ogradu poput one koja je uklonjena na njenoj zapadnoj granici prije 26 godina. Samit nije bio u stanju da ponudi više od simbolične podrške zemljama gdje su se hiljade izbjeglica nasukale u njihovim parkovima i željezničkim stanicama.

Pitanje izbjeglica – pogrešno nazvanim migranti – zasjenilo je samit, ali kao i kod svakog samita, ključne odluke i suština su donesene sedmicama i mjesecima ranije. Tako je izbjeglička kriza i užasna smrt oko 70 izbjeglica samo 50 kilometara od Hofburga na autoputu zasjenila samit, ali ga nije potopila.

Izgledalo je da su vlade Zapadnog Balkana većinom zainteresirane za infrastrukturu i novac. Poruka je mješovita pošto je srbijanski premijer Vučić rekao da on ne smatra EU kao ATM bankomat – pronalazeći vrijednosti da ishvali tretman Srbije prema izbjeglicama za razliku od nekih članica EU – a albanski premijer Edi Rama je nagovijestio da njega zanima novac EU. Kako god, oba premijera su naglasila potrebu da se podrži infrastruktura.

Nema sumnje da je za regionalnu infrastrukturu potrebno poboljšanje i zajednički projekti, kao što je autoput koji povezuje Albaniju, Kosovo i Srbiju, što može imati veliku važnost. Rizik je da fizička infrastruktura zasjeni druge forme saradnje. Stoga je bila potrebna duga priprema da bi se došlo do dva ohrabrujuća rezultata na samitu u Beču. Vlade su potpisale sporazum za uspostavu sistema za regionalnu razmjenu mladih na bazi njemačko-francuskog ureda za mlade. Za samit koji će se sljedeće godine održati u Parizu treba da budu spremni ugovor i struktura za formalnu uspostavu. Uz učešće ministarstava za mlade, opredijeljenost za evropsko i vladino finansiranje, ovaj projekat nudi izvjesno obećanje za bolju saradnju građana. Glavno je ne pretrpati već postojeće razmjene mladih i saradnju.

The Viennese Hofburg makes for a grand setting for any summit. When Western Balkan governments met with EU officials and representative from some EU member states, most notably Germany and Austria, but also Croatia, Slovenia and Italy, the planned signal was to show that EU enlargement is alive, as is regional cooperation. In comparison to the first such summit last year in Berlin, the Vienna summit comes after a host of regional meetings that some have joked that the prime ministers of the region see each other more often than their own ministers. Regional cooperation has picked up steam, even if EU enlargement remains no closer for most of the region than a year ago. It is undeniable, however, that there is a slightly renewed dynamism. The refugee crisis might have dominated reporting and the official discussion, it also highlights the absurdity of the Western Balkans being outside the EU. We are witnessing tens of thousands of refugees crossing an EU and Schengen country to escape through two non-EU countries—Macedonia and Serbia—to get to another Schengen country—Hungary—that is building a fence like the one it dismantled at its Western border 26 years ago. The summit was unable to offer more than symbolic support to the countries where thousands of refugees are stranded in their parks and train stations.

The issue of refugees—mislabeled as migrants—overshadowed the summit, but as with any such summit, the key decisions and substances are taken in the weeks and months before. Thus the refugee crisis and the horrific death of some 70 refugees some 50 kilometers from the Hofburg on a highway overshadowed the summit, but did not drown it out.

The governments of the Western Balkans seemed mostly interested in infrastructure and money. The message was mixed as Serbian Prime Minister Vučić said that he did not consider the EU to be an ATM—discoving values to praise Serbia’s treatment of refugees in contrast to some EU members—Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama rather suggested that it is money from the EU he is after. Either way, both Prime Minsiters emphasised the need to support infrastructure.

There is little doubt that regional infrastructure is in need of updrading and joint projects, such as a highway linking Albanian, Kosovo and Serbia, can have a great impact. The risk is that the physical infrastructure overshadows other forms of cooperation. Here, lengthy preparation have yielded two encouraging results at the Vienna summit. The governments signed an agreement to establish a regional youth exchange system based on the German-French youth office. By next year’s summit in Paris there should be a treaty and structure ready for the formal establishment. Whith the involvements of youth ministries, committment for European and government funding, this project holds some promise for enhaning cooperation of citizens. Key will be not to crowd out already existing youth exchanges and cooperation.

Samit je isto tako bio neuobičajen pošto je po prvi put na jednom takvom događaju bilo uključeno i civilno društvo. Preko 50 predstavnika iz regionalnih NVO, medija, sindikata i civilnih aktivista sastali su se uoči konferencije i predstavili preporuke o otvaranju radnih mjesta, slobodi medija i regionalnoj saradnji na samom samitu (BIEPAG /Balkans in Europe Policy Blog i ja bili smo uključeni u pripremi ovih događaja koje su podržali Erste Foundation, Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation i Karl-Renner-Foundation). Uključenje civilnog društva bilo je izazov pošto politički lideri u regionu još nisu navikli da razgovaraju sa civilnim društvom na istoj ravni a civilno društvo je pod pritiskom u nekoliko zemalja, kao što su Crna Gora, Srbija ili Makedonija. Nikakav samit ne može promijeniti ovu dinamiku, ali barem je uključenje civilnog društva od strane ministarstva vanjskih poslova Austrije poslalo signal da ih ne treba ignorirati.

Drugi važan signal bilo je poptpisivanje izjave o bilateralnim pitanjima (BIEPAG je pripremio studiju o bilateralnim pitanjima za austrijsko ministarstvo vanjskih poslova i dalo nacrt izjave). U izjavi, ministri vanjskih poslova su se obavezali da neće dozvoliti da bilateralna pitanja zaustave proces evropske integracije drugih zemalja u regionu. Ova obaveza podsjeća na sličnu datu u Briselskom sporazumu između Srbije i Kosova i izjavu hrvatskog parlamenta iz 2011. Međutim, po prvi put su sve zemlje Zapadnog Balkana potpisale i takođe pozvale susjedne EU zemlje da im se pridruže (poruka je jasna, iako nije vjerovatno da će se priključiti ovoj obavezi).

Similarly the summit was unusual as civil society was involvement for the first time in such an event. Over 50 representative from regional NGOs, media, trade unions and civic activitsts meet on the eve of the conference and presented recommendations on job creation, mediea freedom and regional cooperation at the summit itself (BiEPAG and I were involved in the preperation of these events which were supported by the Erste Foundation, the Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation and the Karl-Renner-Foundation). The involvement of civil society was challenging as politicial leaders in the region are still not used to talking to civil society at eye level and civil society has come under pressure in several countries, such as Montenegro, Serbia or Macedonia. Not a single summit can change this dynamic, but at least the involvement of civil society by the Austrian Foreign ministry sent the signal that they should not be ignored.

Another important signal was the signing of a declaration on biltareral issues (BiEPAG prepared a study on bilateral issues for the Austrian Foreign Ministry and drafted the declaration). In the declaration, the Foreign Ministers committed themselves not to let bilateral issues stop the European initgration process of other countries in the region. This committment echos a similar one in the Brussels agreement between Serbia and Kosovo and adeclaration of the Croatian parliament from 2011. However, for the first time, all countries of the Western Balkans signed up and also invited neighboring EU countries to join them (the message is clear, even if they are unlikely to join the committment).

Štaviše, složili su se da će o postignutom napretku izvijestiti na samitu u Parizu sljedeće godine. Ova izjava uslijedila je nakon što je Crna Gora potpisala sporazum o granici sa Kosovom i Bosnom i Hercegovinom uoči samita, a Srbija i Kosovo se dogovorili o ključnim pitanjima. Najozbiljnija bilateralna pitanja uključuju EU i zemlje koje nisu članice EU (posebno između Makedonije i Grčke, ali isto tako i granice između Hrvatske i Bosne i Hercegovine i Srbije ostaju potencijalan izvor tenzija) a nema izgleda da će se u skoroj budućnosti riješiti, ali izjava i sporazumi su signal da se barem neki potencijalni izvori tenzija mogu riješiti.

Zvijezde samita bili su srbijanski i albanski premijeri Vučić i Rama koji su se zajedno pojavili na debati sa civilnim društvom i u talk show emisiji “Okruženje”. Namjerno se obraćajući jedan drugom po imenu, Edi i Aleksandar dobro su se uigrali da izvrše pritisak na EU da se pokrene. Ovo je veliki pomak nakon manje od godinu dana kad je bila potrebna njemačka intervencija da bi se njih dvojica sastali a prekinuta sbijansko-albanska fudbalska utakmica dovela do rata izjavama. Međutim, sada to izgleda kao razrađena igra koju njih dvojica igraju u kojoj regionalna saradnja djeluje kao zabava, posebno za Vučića. Sve dok on zastupa regionalnu saradnju i Kosovo, izgleda da će EU ali i Njemačka izbjeći drugi, kritičniji pogled o tome kako on kontrolira i upravlja Srbijom.

Samit u Beču možda nije mogao apostrofirati korijen autoritarnosti u regionu, ali kad je Gruevski postigao dva pogotka na fudbalskoj utakmici političara sa Zapadnog Balkana protiv EU, vidjela se izvjesna ironija, i možda je simptomatično da neko ko je bio pod jakim pritiskom prije nekoliko mjeseci i jasno nastupa kao neko ko je razvukao demokratske principe i vladavinu prava može lako ubaciti loptu u gol EU tima u Beču.

Furthermore, they agreed to report back on progress made at next years summit in Paris. This declaration came as Montenegro signed a border agreement with Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina on the eve of the sumit and Serbia and Kosovo agreed on key outstanding issues. The most serious bilateral issues involve EU and non-EU members (especially between Macedonia and Greece, but also the borders between Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia remain a potential source of tension) and there is no immedeate perspective of resolving them, but the declaration and the agreements signal that at least some potential sources of tensions can be settled.

The stars of the summit were Serbian and Albanian PMs Vučić and Rama who appeared together at a debate with civil society and the talk show «Okruženje». Demonstrably on a first name basis, Edi and Aleksandar played up their good ties to put pressure on the EU to deliver. This is a great shift from less than year ago when it took German intervention to get the two meet first and the abandonded Serbian-Albanian soccer game led to a war of words. However, now it appears like an elaborate game the two play in which regional cooperation is working as a distraction, especially for Vučić. As long as he delivers on regional cooperation and Kosovo, the EU and also Germany seem to avoid a second, more critcially look at how he is controling and micro-managing Serbia.

The Vienna summit could not address the creeping authoritarianism in the region, but when Gruevski scored two goals in the football game of politicians from the Western Balkans against the EU, there is certain irony and maybe symptomatic that somebody who was under strong pressure a few months ago and who clearly appears to have stretched democratic principles and rule of law can be leisurly kick a ball in the goal of the EU team in Vienna.

Florian Bieber je professor studija za jugoistočnu Evropu i direktor Centra studija za jugoistočnu Evropu na Univerzitetu Graz, u Austriji. Studirao je na Trinity Collegeu (USA), Univerzitetu u Beču i Centralno-evropskom univerzitetu i doktorirao na političkim naukama na Bečkom Univerzitetu. Između 2001. i 2006. radio je u Beogradu (Srbija) i Sarajevu (Bosna i Hercegovina) za Evropski centar za pitanja manjina. On je gostujući professor na Programu za studije nacionalizma na Centralno-evropskom univerzitetu, a predavao je na Univerzitetu Kent, Cornell Univerzitetu, Univerzitetu u Bolonji i Univerzitetu u Sarajevu.

Florian Bieber is a Professor of Southeast European Studies and director of the Centre for Southeast European Studies at the University of Graz, Austria. He studied at Trinity College (USA), the University of Vienna and Central European University, and received his PhD in Political Science from the University of Vienna. Between 2001 and 2006 he worked in Belgrade (Serbia) and Sarajevo (Bosnia & Hercegovina) for the European Centre for Minority Issues. He is a Visiting Professor at the Nationalism Studies Program at Central European University and has taught at the University of Kent, Cornell University, the University of Bologna and the University of Sarajevo.

Tekst je prvobitno objavljen na Balkans in Europe Policy Blog (01.09.2015).

This article was originally published on the Balkans in Europe Policy Blog

(01.09.2015).

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