Francisco de Borja Lasheras & Vessela Tcherneva :

Da li EU gubi Zapadni Balkan? Šta o tome misle lokalni eksperti

Sve u svemu, postoji osjećaj da Evropa treba da se ponovo uspostavi u odnosu na Zapadni Balkan i da, u svjetlu tih izazova, više nije dovoljna ista volja. Različiti strateški procesi u EU i nekim njenim članicama treba da budu prilika za ovu novu politiku ili novu strategiju. Naposljetku, kao što su lokalni eksperti naglasili, budućnost Zapadnog Balkana je pitanje koje se temeljno tiče onakve EU kakvu Evropljani zaista žele i budućnosti samog evropskog projekta. Ovo je pitanje koje Evropljani ne mogu i dalje izbjegavati. A što se tiče Zapadnog Balkana, što prije odgovori na to tim bolje, osim ako ne želi da druge globalne sile preduhitre sa svojim odgovorom. Prevod: Dijalog BiH2.0

11.08.2015.

Francisco de Borja Lasheras & Vessela Tcherneva :

Is the EU losing the Western Balkans? What local experts think

Overall, there is a sense that Europe needs to re-establish itself with regards to the Western Balkans and that, in the face of these challenges, more of the same will not suffice. The different strategic processes in the EU and some of its member states should be an opportunity for this policy reset or new strategy. Ultimately, as local experts suggested, the future of the Western Balkans is a question that fundamentally pertains to the kind of EU that Europeans really want and to the future of the European project itself. This is a question that Europeans can no longer dodge. And, for the Western Balkans, the sooner they answer it, the better, unless they want other global powers to pre-empt their answer.

11.08.2015.

Nezavršen posao na Zapadnom Balkanu

Zapadni Balkan ostaje nezavršen posao Evrope, ne samo zbog stalnog zastoja u Bosni ili tenzija u Makedoniji i Sjevernom Kosovu, nego i zato što se u ovom regionu takođe materijalizira i širi geopolitički razvoj koji oblikuje okruženje EU – i na mnoge načine mogao bi biti štetan za evropske interese.

Napetosti i percepcija zastoja na Balkanu potaknuti su ‘petogodišnjim zahlađenjem’, dok su novonastale forme pravila u sukobu sa osnivačkim načelima EU i pričom o integraciji. Ustvari, ista konkurentnost modela, što vidimo u drugim dijelovima Evrope, koja suprotstavlja više manje pluralističke demokratije spram populističkih ili neliberalnih demokratija po matrici Viktora Urbana ili čak ‘putinizma’, igra se i na Zapadnom Balkanu, sa neizvjesnim ishodom za taj krhki region. Ironija je, da u istom tom dijelu svijeta gdje je EU u vođstvu i gdje njen uticaj, kroz transformativnu snagu, treba da bude najjači, lokalni eksperti se slažu da EU više nije vodeći akter i da je njena snaga poluge oslabila.

Pokaže li se Evropa nesposobnom da preokrene ili barem neutralizira najnegativnije aspekte takvog razvoja, Zapadni Balkan bi mogao zapasti u neku vrstu strateškog limba bliskog “Evropi” : niti je unutra niti je vani, zahvaljujući geopolitičkim zadiranjima drugih aktera, koji jedva da su demokrati, i skrivenim izazovima sigurnosti.

To da je na Zapadnom Balkanu “Pax Europeanna” u pitanju već je izvjesno vrijeme predmet analiza učenih ljudi i stvar rastuće zabrinutosti u nekim metropolama. Ipak, iza ‘govora politike’ o “evropskom ponovnom angažiranju” ili održavanju proširenja u životu, izgleda da je to daleko manje vrijedno u terminima odlučne, panevropske strateške diskusije o onom što je aktuelni oblik tih izazova i, još važnije, šta Evropljani treba da učine s tim u vezi.

Ova pitanja pokrenuta su na nedavnoj radionici u Sofiji, uz značajno učešće balkanskih mislilaca, novinara i analitičara. Među gostima bili su visoka predstavnica Evropske unije Federica Mogherini, bugarski ministar vanjskih poslova Daniel Mitov i zamjenica bugarskog premijera Meglena Kuneva. Više od 50 eksperata sa Balkana i regiona Crnog mora izrazili su svoju zabrinutost i ponudili politička rješenja.

No business as usual in the Western Balkans

The Western Balkans remain Europe’s unfinished business, not only for the continuing stalemate in Bosnia or tensions in Macedonia and Northern Kosovo, but also because broader geopolitical developments shaping the EU’s neighbourhood are materialising in this region too - and in ways that could be detrimental to European interests.

Tensions and perception of a stalemate in the Balkans are enhanced by “the five year freeze”, while emerging forms of rule are at odds with the EU’s founding tenets and the integration narrative. Indeed, the same competition of models, that we see in other parts of Europe, which pits more or less pluralist democracies against populists or illiberal democracies in the mould of Viktor Orban or even “Putinism”, is played out in the Western Balkans too, with uncertain outcomes for this fragile region. Ironically, in the very part of the world where the EU is in the lead and where its influence, through its transformative power, should be at its most potent, local experts concur that the EU is no longer the leading actor and that its leverage has decreased.

Should Europe prove unable to reverse, or at least neutralise, the most negative aspects of such developments, the Western Balkans could enter a sort of strategic limbo close to “Europe”: neither truly in, nor truly out, pray to geopolitical encroachment by other actors, poorly democratised and with latent security challenges.

That the “Pax Europeanna” is in question in the Western Balkans has been for some time now the subject of analysis by pundits and a matter of growing concern in some capitals. Yet, beyond ‘policy speak’ about “European re-engagement” or keeping enlargement alive, there seems to have been thus far precious little in terms of a purposeful, pan-European strategic discussion on what is the actual shape of these challenges and, importantly, what should Europeans do about them.

These questions were tackled by a recent workshop in Sofia, with notable participation of Balkan think-tankers, journalists and analysts. The guest speakers included HR/VP Federica Mogherini, Bulgarian Foreign Minister Daniel Mitov and deputy Bulgarian PM Meglena Kuneva. More than 50 experts from the Balkans and the Black Sea region raised their concerns and offered policy suggestions.

Šta misle lokalni eksperti?

Lokalni eksperti su raspravljali o tome da EU u osnovi djeluje kao politički autopilot, sa snažnim fokusom na proces (na primjer, naglasak na odlučivanje) a manje na supstancu (na primjer, aktuelni napredak u dubokoj demokratizaciji i dobroj vlasti). Interne borbe u EU i negativna politika sa GrexitandBrexits, zajedno sa političkim zahlađenjem koji je rezultat zamora od proširenja, doprinijeli su gubljenju poluge na Zapadnom Balkanu. Zauzvrat, elite često nisu baš sklone donošenju reformi koje prijete interseima njihove moći ili ostaju udobno zavaljeni u pogrešnoj politici. U tim okolnostima cijena i korist dalekog izgleda za EU se ponovo preispituju kad se suprotstave opipljivijim koristima koje nude drugi strateški akteri.

I sada vlada osjećaj da momentum nije samo izgubljen nego da je nastupio negatiavn momentum. Širom regiona vidimo povratak na staro, izljeve napetosti (na primjer, kontroverznost oko komemoracija u Srebrenici, pojačanih ruskim vetom u Vijeću sigurnosti UN) i nastali vakuum moći koji postepeno, na razne načine, popunjavaju Rusija, Turska, zemlje Zaliva ili čak Kina. Drugi eksperti su tvrdili da Evropljani trampe ‘demokratiju za stabilnost’ i čak se odriču osnovnih principa – sa osvrtom na prihvatanje nedemokratskih praksi u Makedoniji i drugim mjestima.

What do local experts think?

Local experts argued that the EU is basically acting on policy autopilot, with an overwhelming focus on process (e.g. benchmark decision-making) and less on substance (e.g. actual progress on deep democratisation and good governance). The EU’s own internal struggles and negative politics with its Grexitand Brexits, together with the political chill resulting from the enlargement fatigue, have contributed to its losing leverage in the Western Balkans. In turn, elites are often not keen on passing reforms which are threatening their power interests or remain comfortable in spoiler politics. In these circumstances, the costs and benefits of a distant EU prospect are reassessed when set against the more tangible benefits offered by other strategic actors.

There is a sense that, at present, not only has momentum been lost but negative momentum has set in. We see democratic rollbacks across the region, outbursts of tensions (for instance, the controversy around the Srebrenica commemorations, magnified by Russia’s veto at the UN Security Council) and the resulting power vacuum gradually filled, in different ways, by Russia, Turkey, the Gulf countries or even China. Other experts argued that Europeans would be trading “democracy for stability” and even renouncing basic principles –with references to acceptance with undemocratic practices in Macedonia and elsewhere.

Though regional initiatives, such as the Berlin Process, the Serbia-Kosovo dialogue and the EC-led Politcal agreement in Skopje, are sign of a certain re-engagement, experts showed scepticism towards these projects’ real capacity to be game-changers. This doubt is given more credence, given the regional tradition of undertaking power-sharing or reforms commitments that, in spite of much rhetoric and fanfare, are not honoured.

When it comes to stale dossiers such as Bosnia or the crisis of Macedonia, participants in the workshop argued for the EU to be more assertive, instead of just an incentive-based approach, to guarantee respect for agreements and reassurance against spoiler politics, tensions and zero-sum games.

Nova evropska strategija za Zapadni Balkan?

Lokalni eksperti se uveliko zalažu za revidiranje politike EU prema regionu i, prije svega, traže da se izbjegne sadašnja inercija, iako se čak vide promjene na putu naprijed. U ovom pogledu, EU i njene zemlje članice treba da nađu ‘novu strategiju’ za region. Ova strategija treba da bude povezana sa tekućim procesom za novu globalnu strategiju EU. Takva strategija treba, kako oni tvrde, da slijedi politiku preispitivanja baziranu na lekcijama naučenim iz scenarija kao što su Kosovo i Makedonija.

Šta više, sadašnji autopilot modus o proširenju ne može se nastaviti. EU treba da promijeni trend slabljenja demokratskih snaga u regionu i promijeni kurs da bi se omogućio inkluzivniji, istinski transformativni proces koji će se snažnije oslanjati na ulogu civilnog društva. Sadašnji naglasak na regionalnu saradnju, socio-ekonomiju i vladu je pozitivan, ali ga treba podržati stvarnim, opipljivim ishodima za stanovništvo i bazirati na podržanom implementiranju reformi.

Sve u svemu, postoji osjećaj da Evropa treba da se ponovo uspostavi u odnosu na Zapadni Balkan i da, u svjetlu tih izazova, više nije dovoljna ista volja. Različiti strateški procesi u EU i nekim njenim članicama treba da budu prilika za ovu novu politiku ili novu strategiju. Naposljetku, kao što su lokalni eksperti naglasili, budućnost Zapadnog Balkana je pitanje koje se temeljno tiče onakve EU kakvu Evropljani zaista žele i budućnosti samog evropskog projekta. Ovo je pitanje koje Evropljani ne mogu i dalje izbjegavati. A što se tiče Zapadnog Balkana, što prije odgovori na to tim bolje, osim ako ne želi da druge globalne sile preduhitre sa svojim odgovorom.

A new European strategy for the Western Balkans?

Local experts overwhelmingly advocated for a reassessment of EU’s policies towards the region and, above all, to avoid current inertia, even if this were to see changes in the way forward. In their view, the EU and its member states would need a “new strategy” for the region. This strategy should be coherent with the ongoing process for a new EU Global Strategy. Such a strategy should follow, they argue, a policy reassessment based on lessons learned from scenarios like Kosovo or Macedonia.

Moreover, the current autopilot mode on enlargement cannot continue. The EU should reverse a trend of disempowerment of democratic forces in the region, and shift course to enable a more inclusive, truly transformational process that would rely more heavily on civil society’s role. The current emphasis on regional cooperation, socio-economics and governance is positive, but needs to be backed with real, tangible outcomes for the population and based on sustained implementation of reforms.

Overall, there is a sense that Europe needs to re-establish itself with regards to the Western Balkans and that, in the face of these challenges, more of the same will not suffice. The different strategic processes in the EU and some of its member states should be an opportunity for this policy reset or new strategy. Ultimately, as local experts suggested, the future of the Western Balkans is a question that fundamentally pertains to the kind of EU that Europeans really want and to the future of the European project itself. This is a question that Europeans can no longer dodge. And, for the Western Balkans, the sooner they answer it, the better, unless they want other global powers to pre-empt their answer.

Francisco de Borja Lasheras & Vessela Tcherneva European Council on Foreign Relations

Francisco de Borja Lasheras & Vessela Tcherneva European Council on Foreign Relations

Tekst je prvobitno objavljen na European Council on Foreign Relations portalu (05.08.2015).

Prevod: Dijalog BiH2.0

This article was originally published on the European Council on Foreign Relations portal (05.08.2015).

Odgovornost za informacije i gledišta iznesena u ovom članku, isključivo leži na autorima i nužno ne odražavaju mišljenje urednika Dialogue - BiH2.0 – Dijalog, njegovog savjetodavnog odbora, Tufts univerziteta, partnera, pobornika i donatora.

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