Šta dobijemo kada se iskombinuju nedelje lokalnih, regionalnih i globalnih igara moći, komemoracija povodom godišnjice jedinog genocida u Evropi posle Drugog svetskog rata, prema odluci Haškog tribunala, uzana dolina ispunjena hiljadama posjetilaca, etničke tenzije, uzavrele emocije i ogromna vrućina?

Odgovor: opasnu i eksplozivnu mješavinu, koja je u subotu pogodila lice srpskog premijera Aleksandra Vučića i isprskala bosanske, srpske, britanske, ruske, američke, evropske i druge političke lidere - sve pred budnim okom kamera globalnih medija.

Portretisanjem Vučića kao neočekivanog mučenika, a preživelih Srebreničana i porodica žrtava, kao (ne)mogućih napadača, ova ceremonija je dostigla sopstveni anti-klimaks.

Gungula je počela nakon što je bošnjački ratni komandant u Srebrenici Naser Orić uhapšen u Švajcarskoj, po međunarodnoj potjernici, koju je izdala srpska vlada, uprkos činjenici da je Haški tribunal 2008. godine odbacio optužbe protiv Orića.

Činjenica da je Orić uhapšen gotovo tačno mjesec dana prije komemoracije u Srebrenici izazvala je kritike Bošnjaka, koji ocjenjuju da je to učinjeno namjerno kako bi se poremetila ceremonija povodom 20. godišnjice.

Tvrdnje Srbije da su otkrili nove dokaze o Oriću ne zvuče ubjedljivo, jer je malo onih koji vjeruju u tu koincidenciju.

Ipak, loše su reagovala udruženja preživjelih iz Srebrenice i porodice žrtava, koji su zaprijetili da će otkazati komemoraciju ukoliko Orić ne bude oslobođen.

Ako je srpska vlada željela da umanji značaj događaja u Srebrenici, zar im to ne bi išlo na ruku? Isto tako, da li je jedna osoba, čak iako je mnogi smatraju ratnim herojem, važnija od odavanja pošte u znak sjećanja na 8,000 žrtava?

Švajcarska je na kratko spasila stvar, jer je Orića izručila Bosni umjesto Srbiji.

Međutim, državni tužilac BiH nije pokazao nimalo takta, pošto je Orića pustio poslije samo nekoliko sati. Optužbe za ratne zločine koje je bosansko pravosuđe navelo kada je tražilo izručenje Orića zahtijevaju ozbiljnije postupanje.

Taj postupak nanio je dodatnu štetu već poljuljanom autoritetu bosanskog pravosuđa među bosanskim Srbima, kao i među drugim građanima BiH. To je predsjedniku Republike Srpske Miloradu Dodiku dalo savršen izgovor da pokrene novu inicijativu za referendum, dovodeći u pitanje nadležnost državnog pravosuđa u BiH i samog visokog predstavnika.

I kao da već nije nastao dovoljan haos oko komemoracije u Srebrenici, britanska vlada je uskočila u vreli kotao i Savetu bezbjednosti UN predložila novi rezoluciju o Srebrenici.

Ova inicijativa ponovo je intenzivirala debatu o tome da li je Srebrenica genocid ili “samo” masakr.

Većina zvaničnika u Srbiji i Republici Srpskoj ignorišu presude Haškog tribunala u kojima se kaže da zločini u Srebrenici predstavljaju genocid. Međutim, mnogi bošnjački zvaničnici, preživeli Srebreničani i porodice žrtava takođe ignorišu činjenicu da su gotovo svi zvaničnici u Srbiji i Republici Srpskoj priznali da su u Srebrenici počinjeni ratni zločini i da su se izvinili ili makar izrazili žaljenje zbog toga.

Na jedan ili drugi način, britanska inicijativa je prošla neslavno. Britanska vlada je možda imala dobre namjere, ali nije predvidjela moguće posljedice svoje inicijative, jer je samo produbila podjele u BiH i između Srbije i BiH i omogućila Rusiji da pokaže mišiće i dobije malo publiciteta među Srbima.

Ove lokalne, regionalne i globalne tenzije i podjele stvorile su opasnu scenu za komemoraciju u Srebrenici. Javno poniženje na ovoj ceremoniji imalo je direktan prenos širom zemlje i svijeta.

What do we get when you combine weeks o local, regional and global power-plays, a commemoration of what The Hague tribunal ruled as the only act of genocide to take place on European soil since the World War II, a narrow valley overcrowded with tens of thousands of visitors, ethnic tensions, sweltering emotions and scorching heat?

The answer: a dangerous and explosive concoction, which on Saturday blew into the face of Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic and splattered Bosnian, Serbian, British, Russian, US, EU and other political leaders – all in front of the watchful cameras of the global media.

By portraying Vucic as an unexpected martyr and the survivors of Srebrenica and the families of the victims, as (un)likely aggressors, this ceremony achieved its own anti-climax.

The hubbub started after the wartime Bosniak commander of Srebrenica, Naser Oric, was arrested in Switzerland under an international arrest warrant issued by the Serbian government, despite the fact that the Hague Tribunal rejected previous Serbian war-crimes charges against Oric in 2008.

The fact that Oric was arrested almost exactly a month before the Srebrenica commemoration drew complaints from Bosniaks that this was done to deliberately disrupt the 20th anniversary ceremony.

Serbian claims to have discovered new evidence about Oric rang hollow, as few believed in the coincidence.

Still, associations of Srebrenica survivors and families of the victims reacted badly, by threatening to cancel the commemoration ceremony unless Oric was released.

If the Serbian government wanted to downplay the Srebrenica event, didn’t this play into its hands? Also, is one person, even if he is considered a war hero by many, more important that paying respect to the memories of 8,000 victims?

The day was briefly saved by Switzerland, which extradited Oric to Bosnia instead to Serbia.

But Bosnia’s state prosecutor showed complete lack of tact by releasing Oric after only a few hours. The war-crimes charges that Bosnia’s judiciary used to get Oric back from Switzerland required more serious handling than that.

This action inflicted further damage to already dented authority of the Bosnian judiciary among Bosnian Serbs, and among other Bosnian citizens as well. It also provided Bosnian Serb leader, Milorad Dodik, with the perfect excuse to launch yet another initiative for a referendum, challenging the authority of Bosnia’s state judiciary and the High Representative himself.

As if the Bosnians were not creating enough mess over the Srebrenica commemoration, the British government jumped in to the boiling cauldron and proposed a new Srebrenica resolution for adoption by the UN Security Council.

This initiative re-intensified local debate about whether Srebrenica was an act of genocide or “just” a massacre.

Most Serbian and Bosnian Serb officials happily ignore the Hague tribunal rulings and deny that the events at Srebrenica were genocide. However, many Bosniak officials and Srebrenica survivors and victims’ families have also ignored the fact that almost all Serbian and Bosnian Serb officials have acknowledged that war crimes were committed in Srebrenica and have apologized or at least expressed regret for them.

One way or the other, the British initiative failed miserably. The UK government may have had good intentions but it failed to anticipate the possible consequences of its initiative, as it only deepened divisions within Bosnia and between Bosnia and Serbia, allowing Russia to show its muscles and score a few publicity points with the Serbs.

These local, regional and global tensions and divisions put in place a precarious scene for the Srebrenica commemoration. The public humiliation of this ceremony was then directly broadcasted across the country and the world.

U subotu je put između Srebrenice i nekadašnje baze UN u Potočarima, koja je prije 20 godina bila ispunjena muškarcima, ženama, djecom i starima, koji su bježali iz grada, bio je ispunjen štandovima na kome se prodaju komadi jagnjetine sa ražnja, dok se dim od pečenog mesa širio iznad grada. Atmosfera je više odgovarala proslavi seoskog praznika nego nečemu što je trebalo da bude svečani događaj, koji se održava u sred svetog meseca Ramazana.

Graja je porasla kada su u grad jedna za drugom počele da pristižu delegacije stranih zvaničnika i da se provlače ulicama prepunih ljudi. Bez obzira na napore bosanske policije i drugih zvaničnika da uvedu nekakav red u tom haosu, organizacija događaja se od samog početka pokazala katastrofalnom. Situacija je vrlo brzo postala još gora, pošto su gotovo sve telefonske i radio komunikacije prekinute, iz nepoznatih razloga.

Mnogi lokalni zvaničnici i zapadne diplomate bili su prepušteni sami sebi, jer se obezbjeđenje fokusiralo na pratnju visokih lokalnih i međunarodnih zvanica kroz masu od nekoliko desetina hiljada ljudi.

Masa je, kao da su na fudbalskoj utakmici, a ne na svečanoj ceremoniji, aplaudirala bivšem predsedniku SAD Bilu Klintonu i nekolicini drugih lokalnih zvaničnika, a zviždala Vučiću, bošnjačkom članu Predsedništva BiH Bakiru Izetbegoviću i drugim ne tako omiljenim političarima.

Policija i bezbjednosne agencije u BiH treba da istraže šta se dogodilo srpskom premijeru. Dovoljno je reći da je teško uočljiva povreda na Vučićevom licu mala cijena koju je on ili neko drugi mogao da plati u tom haosu, koji je mogao da se završi mnogo većim i ozbiljnijim incidentom.

Napad je sve šokirao i osvijestio balkanske zavisnike od moći, barem privremeno. Izetbegović, Vučić i mnogi drugi zvaničnici u BiH i Srbiji dali su pomirljive izjave i pozvali na nove posjete. Ipak, nepopravljiva šteta nanijeta je Srebrenici, Bosni i Hercegovini, Srbiji i političkim i etničkim odnosima širom Balkana.

Pored toga, ta priča nikako nije završena.

Vijesti o potpunom kolapsu koordinacije različitih policijskih agencija i drugih bezbednosnih detalja, koja se pojavila odmah poslije godišnjice, praćena je informacijom da je Državna agencija za istrage i zaštitu (SIPA) odbila da učestvuje u obezbjeđivanju komemoracije u Srebrenici.

Direktor Sipe Goran Zubac imao je sličan potez u februaru 2014. godine, kada je odbio da se priključi drugim policijskim jedinicama tokom nasilnih protesta. Kao posljedica toga, sve više ljudi dovodi u pitanje poentu bezbjednosne agencije koja toleriše nesigurnost i odbija angažovanje u obezbjeđivanju važnih događaja. Neki se pitaju da li je stvarni razlog za takvo postupanje Sipe namjerna želja za povećanjem nepovjerenja u državne institucije u BiH.

Posmatrajući taj nered sa sigurnije i mirnije distance, komemoracija u Srebrenici nudi brojne druge lekcije.

Političarima u Srbiji i BiH, Srebrenica je pokazala samo djelić potencijalno još opasnijih posljedica igranja sa uzavrelim emocijama i etničkim tenzijama na Balkanu.

Međunarodnoj zajednici, Srebrenica je pokazala da je Balkan i dalje duboko podijeljen i da se i dalje puši ispod površine, ali i da je Balkan opasno i nestabilno igralište za globalnu fudbalsku utakmicu koja još traje.

Upravi Srebrenice, kao i udruženjima preživjelih i porodica žrtava, komemoracija je pokazala da su za organizaciju budućih događaja neophodne drastične promjene.

Svim ljudima na Balkanu, ali i međunarodnim diplomatama i stručnjacima koji se bave regionom, 20. godišnjica Srebrenice pokazala je da teorija pomirenja i tranzicione pravde ima jednu veliku manu.

Sve dok budemo insistirali na nametnutom ujedinjenju različitih pogleda na istoriju ovog regiona, nikada neće biti pravog pomirenja. Uvek će biti nekog na Balkanu ko čuva svoj pogled na to šta se dogodilo za vreme Turaka i Austrougara, nakon Drugog svjetskog rata ili prije njega, ili za vrijeme i nakon raspada bivše Jugoslavije.

Naša jednina šansa je da se više fokusiramo na stvari koje su nam zajedničke, a manje na ono što nas dijeli, i da se okrenemo zajedničkoj budućnosti. Onda možemo početi da gradimo sadašnjost koja nam bolje služi nego prošlost. Ili smo očajni da iznova i iznova oživljavamo greške iz prošlosti?

On Saturday, the road between Srebrenica and former UN base of Potocari, which 20 years ago was filled with men, women, children and elderly fleeing the falling town, was lined with stands selling hunks of lamb roasted on spits while the smoke from the burned meat billowed over the town. The atmosphere seemed more appropriate to a village feast than what was supposed to be a solemn event, held in the middle of the holy month of Ramadan.

The tumult increased when one convoy of foreign dignitaries after another drove into the town and snaked through the streets packed with people. Regardless of the efforts of Bosnian police and other officials to bring some order into this chaos, the organization of the event proved a disaster from the onset. The situation was made worse early on, after almost all phone and radio communications collapsed, for unknown reasons.

Many local dignitaries and western diplomats were left to their own devices as security focused on escorting top local and international VIPs through the gauntlet of tens of thousands of people. As if they were at a football match, not a solemn ceremony, the crowd applauded former US president Bill Clinton and few other local favourites and booed Vucic, the Bosniak member of Bosnia’s presidency, Bakir Izetbegovic, and other less liked politicians.

What happened to the Serbian premier remains to be investigated by Bosnia’s police and security agencies. Suffice to say that the hard-to-spot injury on Vucic’s face was a small price that he or someone else might have paid in the chaos, which could have ended in a much bigger and more severe incident.

The attack shocked everyone and brought Balkan power-junkies to their senses, at least temporarily. Izetbegovic, Vucic and many other Bosnian and Serbian leaders issued apologetic statements, offering invitations for new visits. Yet, damage has been irreparably done to Srebrenica, to Bosnia, to Serbia and to political and ethnic relations across the Balkans.

Plus, the story is still far from over.

News about the complete collapse of coordination among different police agencies and other security details, which emerged soon afterwards, was topped by the information that Bosnia’s State Investigation and Protection Agency, SIPA, refused to participate in the organization of security for the Srebrenica commemoration.

SIPA director Goran Zubac managed a similar feat in February 2014, refusing to join other police units during the then violent protests. As a result, more and more people question the point of having a security agency that tolerates insecurity and refuses to engage in securing high-level events. Some wonder if the real reason for SIPA’s indolence was a deliberate wish to increase mistrust in Bosnia’s state institutions.

Observing the mess from safer and calmer distance, Srebrenica commemoration offers numerous other lessons.

To Serbian and Bosnian politicians, Srebrenica showed only a hint of the potentially more dangerous consequences of playing with boiling emotions and ethnic tensions in the Balkans.

To the international community, Srebrenica showed that the Balkans remains deeply divided and steaming under the surface, but also that the Balkans is a dangerous and unstable playing field for a global football match that is still ongoing.

To the Srebrenica administration, as well as the associations of survivors and victims’ families, the commemoration showed that drastic changes are required in the organization of future events.

To all people in the Balkans, as well as international diplomats and experts involved in this region, the 20th anniversary of Srebrenica showed that the theory of reconciliation and transitional justice has a major flaw.

As long as we continue insisting on the enforced unification of different views of the history of this region, there will never be proper reconciliation. There will always be someone in the Balkans who preserves his or her view of what happened during the Ottoman or Austro-Hungarian times, after the World War II or before, or during and after the breakup of former Yugoslavia.

Our only chance is to focus more on the things we have in common and less on those that divide us, and to turn towards a common future. We can then start building a present that serves us better than the past. Or, are we desperate to relive past mistakes, over and over again?