The World Bank:

Jugoistočna Evropa: Ekonomski oporavak u nekim, ali ne i svim zemljama

Redovni ekonomski izvještaj Svjetske banke za jugoistočnu Evropu

Razarajuće poplave u nekim zemljama su dovele do zastoja ekonomije jugoistočne Evrope (SEE61 ) u 2014., uz rast od samo 0,2 procenta, prema najnovijem Redovnom ekonomskom izvještaju za jugoistočnu Evropu (SEE RER) Svjetske banke, prezentiranom danas u Beogradu.

20.01.2015.

The World Bank:

South East Europe: Economic Recovery in Some, but Not All Countries

Launch of World Bank’s latest South East Europe Regular Economic Report

Devastating flooding in some countries brought the economy of South East Europe (SEE6[1]) to a standstill in 2014, with growth of only 0.2 percent, according to the World Bank’s latest South East Europe Regular Economic Report (SEE RER) launched today in Belgrade.

20.01.2015.

“Vanjska potražnja za izvozom iz SEE6 je bila pozitivan pokretač ekonomskog rasta u 2014., uprkos slabom učinku eurozone i razočaravajućem globalnom oporavku rekla je Ellen Goldstein, direktorica Svjetske banke za zemlje jugoistočne Evrope. Međutim, politička neizvjesnost i kašnjenje ili smanjenje investicija su otežali posljedice razornih poplava koje su pogodile regiju u 2014.”

“Nažalost“, Goldstein je dodala,“rast od samo 0,2 procenta je nedovoljan da bi se unaprijedio životni standard ili smanjila velika stopa nezaposlenosti u regiji.”

Slab ekonomski učinak regije, prikriva značajne razlike između SEE6 zemalja, navodi izvještaj. Procjenjuje se da je u Srbiji u 2013. po treći put došlo do smanjenja od početka svjetske krize, a Bosna i Hercegovina stagnira. Procjenjuje se da su se stope ekonomskog rasta Kosova i Crne Gore smanjile u 2014. Samo Albanija i BJR Makedonija pokazuju znakove održivijeg oporavka zahvaljujući povećanju izvoza.

Vremenske nepogode su bile glavni faktor koji je uticao na ekonomski učinak

SEE RER navodi da su vremenske nepogode primarno odgovorne za slab ekonomski učinak u SEE6, nadovezujući se na dokaze da je ekonomski učinak SEE6 zemalja naročito osjetljiv na vremenske prilike.

Procjenjuje se da su poplave u maju 2014. koštale Bosnu i Hercegovinu oko 15,0 procenata BDP-a, a Srbiju oko 4,7 procenta BDP-a u izgubljenoj proizvodnji i štetama. Oštećenja na objektima za proizvodnju električne energije su nanijela štete privredi Srbije, a uništeni usjevi poljoprivrednoj proizvodnji u Bosni i Hercegovini. Gotovo ni jedan segment ekonomije nije ostao pošteđen u ovom ekonomijama pogođenim poplavama. Značajne posljedice nedavnih vremenskih nepogoda u 2014. ukazuju da SEE6 zemlje nisu dobro pripremljene za veće vremenske varijacije.“

Strukturalni izazovi i dalje koče rast

Izvještaj navodi da strukturalni izazovi i dalje koče potencijalni rast u SEE6.

Gallina A. Vincelette, vođa programa i jedan od autora SEE6 RER objašnjava: „Funkcioniranje tržišta rada u cijeloj regiji je anemično, uz istrajno velike stope nezaposlenosti, niske stope učestvovanja radne snage i sporo otvaranje formalnih radnih mjesta. Iako je ostvaren određeni napredak na rasterećenju investicione klime, ima još dosta prostora za unaprjeđenje. Javni sektor je velik i neefikasan u mnogim zemljama. Bolja uvezanost regije putem fizičkih i institucionalnih veza između SEE6 zemalja, sa Evropskom Unijom i ostatkom svijeta će pomoći konkurentnim firmama iz regije da dopru do novih tržišta i da strani investitori dođu u regiju.“

Pogled u budućnost

Prema izvještaju se očekuje da se SEE6 regija u 2015. Umjereno oporavi, uz projiciran zbirni rast od 1,3 procenta.

Rast u 2015. će vjerovatno umanjivati slab oporavak u Bosni i Hercegovini. U ostatku regije se očekuje rast od preko 3 procenta u 2015., pri čemu bi ekonomski rast BJR Makedonije dostigao 3,8 procenata.

Izgledi za rast zavise od vanjskih faktora, uključujući održavanje oporavka vanjske potražnje, naročito u Evropi, te stabilizacija međunarodnih cijena energenata na ili oko sadašnjih nivoa.

Ekonomsku aktivnost u SEE6 usporava slaba domaća potražnja, a povjeranje potrošača i poslovne zajednice ostaje slabo zbog dugotrajnih političkih neizvjesnosti, hronično velike nezaposlenosti i bankarskog sistema opterećenog nenaplativnim zajmovima. Stoga, izvještaj naglašava da se ekonomski rast u kratkoročnom i srednjoročnom periodu u SEE6 može podržati putem mudrih ekonomskih politika sa dobro utvrđenim prioritetima.

SEE RER dva puta godišnje rade ekonomisti iz Globalnih praksi za makroekonomsko i fiskalnog upravljanje Regije Evrope i centralne Azije Svjetske banke.

[1] SEE6 predstavljaju Albanija, Bosna i Hercegovina, Kosovo, BJR Makedonija, Crna Gora i Srbija.

“External demand for SEE6 exports was a positive force for economic growth in 2014, despite the weak Eurozone performance and disappointing global recovery,” said Ellen Goldstein, World Bank Country Director for South East Europe. “However, political uncertainty, and delayed or reduced investments exacerbated the effects of the profoundly devastating floods that hit the region in 2014.”

“Unfortunately,” Goldstein added, “growth of only 0.2 percent is insufficient to improve living standards or make a dent in the region’s high unemployment rate.”

The weak regional economic performance masks notable differences among the SEE6 countries, the report says. Serbia is estimated to have contracted in 2014 for a third time since the global crisis, and Bosnia and Herzegovina is stagnating. Economic growth rates in Kosovo and Montenegro are estimated to have moderated in 2014. Only Albania and FYR Macedonia have shown signs of a more sustained recovery thanks to increasing exports.

Weather shocks a major factor in economic performance

The SEE RER reports that weather shocks have been primarily responsible for the poor economic performance in SEE6, adding to the evidence that SEE6 countries’ economic performance is extremely vulnerable to the weather.

The floods in May 2014 are estimated to have cost Bosnia and Herzegovina around 15.0 percent of GDP and Serbia around 4.7 percent of GDP in lost output and damages. Damaged power generation facilities hurt businesses in Serbia, and damaged crops harmed agricultural output in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Almost no segment of the economy went unharmed in these flood-affected economies. The significant impacts of the recent weather shocks in 2014 suggest that SEE6 countries are not well-prepared for the increased weather variation.

Structural challenges continue to hold back growth

The report says that structural challenges continue to hold back potential growth in SEE6.

Gallina A. Vincelette, Program Leader and one of the authors of the SEE6 RER, explains, “The functioning of the labor markets across the region is anemic with the persistently high unemployment rates, low labor force participation rates, and sluggish formal job creation. Even though some progress has been made in easing the burdens of the investment climate, there is still room for improvement. The public sector is large and inefficient in many countries in the region. Improved connectivity of the region through physical and institutional linkages among the SEE6 countries, to the European Union, and to the rest of the world, will help competitive firms from the region reach new markets and foreign investors come to the region.”

Looking ahead

According to the report, in 2015, the SEE6 region is expected to recover modestly, with aggregate growth projected to average 1.3 percent.

Growth is likely to be held back in 2015 by a weak recovery in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia. The rest of the region is expected to grow by over 3 percent in 2015, with economic growth reaching 3.8 percent in FYR Macedonia.

Growth prospects are dependent on external factors, including a sustained recovery of external demand, especially in Europe, and stabilization of international energy prices at around current levels.

Economic activity in SEE6 is dampened by weak domestic demand as consumer and business confidence remain weak over lingering political uncertainty, chronically high unemployment, and banking systems saddled with high nonperforming loans. Therefore, the report emphasizes that economic growth in the near- and the medium-term in SEE6 can be supported through sound and well-prioritized economic policies.

The SEE RER is produced twice a year by staff economists in the Macroeconomic & Fiscal Management Global Practice of the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Region.

[1] SEE6 are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYR Macedonia), Montenegro, and Serbia.

Redovni ekonomski izvještaj Svjetske banke za jugoistočnu Evropu je predstavljen na websajtu Svjetske banke (20.01.2015)

Launch of World Bank’s latest South East Europe Regular Economic Report was announced on the World Bank website (20.01.2015).

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