Sažetak

Prošlo je dvadeset godina otkako je Dejtonski sporazum okončao razarajući rat, a Bosna i Hercegovina je u blatu koruptivne političke ekonomije koja hrani šefove svojih političkih stranaka i njihove poslušnike dok ekonomija zemlje propada, vladine institucije samo što nisu bankrotirale a građanstvo jedva sastavlja kraj s krajem. Prvih deset poslijeratnih godina (1996-2006) označile su podržani ekonomski rast i međunarodnu intervenciju da stvori vladajuće institucije, ali je otad postignut veoma mali broj reformi. Zastala na putu u članstvo Evropske unije, Bosna i Hercegovina treba da nađe načine da ograniči grabežljivost svojih političara, rastereti preduzetniku i svom narodu omogući prosperitet.

Traženi stimulans ne može više dolaziti od međunarodne intervencije kakvu je praktikovao visoki predstavnik u prvoj poslijeratnoj deceniji. Evropska unija očekuje od Bosne i Hercegovine da udovolji njenim zahtjevima za pristup iskazivanjem svoje suverenosti i volje a ne nametanjem. Danas volja ne postoji, jer mnogi od onih na vlasti očekuju da izgube beneficije i čak strahuju od odlaska u zatvor ako nezavisno sudstvo, slobodni mediji, energično civilno društvo i istinski demokratski procesi budu smatrali odgovornim koruptivne stranke za iskorištavanje javnih dobara za privatnu dobit.

Kako sada stvari stoje, politička ekonomija u Bosni i Hercegovini je nepovoljna za reforme. Jer:

• političko vođstvo i stranke služe uskostranačkim interesima,

• zaostala ekonomija je preopterećena javnim dugom,

• složeno poslovno okruženje sputava oporavak i rast, neformalne mreže gaje pristrasnost, privilegije i nepotizam,

• državna preduzeća uglavnom prave ekonomske gubitke a političke stranke prihod,

• sudstvo postepeno pada pod kontrolu političkih stranaka,

• mediji i civilno društvo nisu slobodni i žive u strahu,

• nezaposlenost i siromaštvo su u porastu, i

• blokirana država nije u stanju da implementira čak ni reforme koje su zakonski odobrene.

Da bi Bosna i Hercegovina raščistila put naprijed, treba da se promijeni postojeća politička ekonomija. Ovo će zahtijevati višeznačni napor, uglavnom od strane Bosanaca ali uz podršku Evropske unije. Potrebni su privatizacija, reforma prava trgovine, unutrašnja demokratizacija političkih partija, nezavisnije sudstvo, odlučno civilno društvo, kraj subvencija za medije od strane vlade, ali ništa nije dovoljno samo po sebi.

Executive Summary

Twenty years after the Dayton agreements ended its devastating war, Bosnia and Herzegovina is mired in a corrupt political economy that feeds its political party bosses and their loyalists while leaving the country’s economy in ruins, its governing institutions all but bankrupt and its citizenry in dire need. The first post-war decade (1996-2006) saw a spurt of assistance-driven economic growth and international intervention to create governing institutions, but little reform has been accomplished since. Stalled on the path to European Union membership, Bosnia and Herzegovina needs to find ways to limit the predation of its politicians, unburden its entrepreneurs, and prosper its people.

The required stimulus can no longer come from international intervention of the sort practiced in the first post-war decade by the High Representative. The European Union expects Bosnia and Herzegovina to meet its entry requirements by exercise of its own sovereignty and will rather than by imposition. The will does not exist today, because many of those in power expect to lose benefits and even fear going to prison if an independent judiciary, free media, energetic civil society and truly democratic processes were to hold corrupt parties accountable for exploiting the public trust for private gain.

As things stand now, the political economy in Bosnia and Herzegovina is unfavorable to reform. Its:

• political leadership and parties serve narrow interests,

• stalled economy is overburdened with public debt,

• complex business environment hampers recovery and growth, • informal networks foster patronage, privilege and cronyism,

• state-owned enterprises generate mainly economic losses and political party revenue,

• judiciary is gradually moving under political party control,

• media and civil society are unfree and living in fear,

• unemployment and poverty are on the rise, and

• captive state is unable to implement even reforms that are approved in legislation.

In order for Bosnia and Herzegovina to clear a way forward, the existing political economy has to change. This will require a multi-faceted effort, mainly implemented by Bosnians but supported by the European Union. Privatization, commercial law reform, internal democratization of political parties, a more independent judiciary, a vigorous civil society, an end to media subsidies from the government are all necessary, but none will suffice on its own.

Mi preporučujemo:

1. Da se visoki predstavnik polako povuče ukoliko ne postoji prijetnja miru i sigurnosti, i da zahtjevi Evropske unije dovedu do reformi.
2. Da bosanske vlasti zajedničkim naporima pojednostave vladajuće strukture u skladu sa principom podređenosti.
3. Da parlament zatraži unutrašnju demokratizaciju u svim političkim partijama i okonča politička naimenovanja izvršnih organa u državnim preduzećima, što treba voditi ka nabavci i privatizaciji kao i primanju pozajmica i subvencija samo u skladu sa odredbama Evropske unije.
4. Da Evropska unija sreže birokratski aparat i administrativne troškove, zamrzne zapošljavanje u vladi i zatraži da izabrani zvaničnici obznane svoju imovinu a državna preduzeća objave izvještaje o budžetu i finansijama.
5. Da Evropska unija oživi zastali strukturalni dijalog o sudstvu, insistira kao uvjet za pomoć implementiranju svojih preporuka i potvrdi da su sudije naimenovani samo na osnovu profesionalne kvalifikacije.
6. Da sudstvo riješi zaostatke i svoje napore fokusira na velike slučajeve korupcije, uz pomoć Evropske unije. Zabrane putovanja i zamrzavanje imovine u inozemstvu su instrument o kome EU i strane vlade treba da razmisle kako bi pomogle ovaj proces.
7. Da entitetski i državni parlamenti okončaju sa subvencijom medija, zatraže otvorenu konkurentnost za oglašavanje vlade i finansiranje civilnog društva. I ojača ulogu ombudsmena, revizora i regulatornih agencija. Nijedna od tih reformi neće biti laka, jer će povrijediti stečena prava i duboko ukorijenjene prakse. Ali reforme na kašiku neće uspjeti bez šireg napora da se promijeni politička ekonomija.

We recommend that:

1. The High Representative continue to fade into the background, unless peace and security are threatened, and that the European Union requirements drive the reform effort.
2. The Bosnian authorities make a concerted effort to simplify their governing structures in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity.
3. The parliament require internal democracy in all political parties and end political appointment of executives in state-owned enterprises, which should conduct procurement and privatization as well as receive loans and subsidies only in accordance with European Union rules.
4. The parliament cut red tape and administrative costs, freeze government hiring and require that elected officials declare their assets and state-owned enterprises publish budgets and financial reports.
5. The European Union revive the dormant structured dialogue on justice, insist as a condition for assistance on implementation of its recommendations and verify that judges are appointed solely on the basis of professional qualifications.
6. The judiciary eliminate backlogs and focus its efforts on large-scale corruption cases, with assistance from the European Union. Travel bans and freezing of assets abroad is an instrument the EU and foreign governments should consider to aid the process.
7. The entity and state parliaments end media subsidies, require open competition for government advertising and any civil society funding, and strengthen the role of ombudspeople, auditors and regulatory agencies. None of these reforms will be easy, because they will impinge on vested interests and deeply ingrained practices. But piecemeal reforms will not succeed without this kind of broader effort to change the political economy.