Daniel Serwer:

Kontraproduktivno

Govorim to tako javno da nema sumnje u moje stavove. Diskutabilno je da li treba da dopustimo RS da nastavi da postoji nakon rata u Bosni kako bi se održao mir. Mir je potrajao i zbog toga treba da budemo zahvalni. Ali institucije nisu obavezno vječne. Ako RS nastavi na svom kontraproduktivnom putu, Amerikanci i Evropljani treba da donesu logičan zaključak.

21.10.2015.

Daniel Serwer:

Counterproductive

I am saying so publicly as well so there is no doubt about my views. It is arguable that we needed to allow the RS to continue to exist at the end of the Bosnian war in order to make peace. The peace has lasted, and for that we should all be grateful. But institutions are not necessarily forever. If the RS continues on its counterprodutive path, Americans and Europeans should reach the logical conclusion.

21.10.2015.

Danas sam prisustvovao sastanku sa premijerkom Republike Srpske (RS) Željkom Cvijanović koja u Vašingtonu razgovara o smanjenju birokratskog aparata u Bosni i decentralizaciji bosanske države. Slažem se sa njenim općim stajalištem o tim pitanjima. Ali je zaboravila spomenuti na prvoj kratkoj prezentaciji na sastanku čiji je domaćin Foreign Policy prijedlog njenog predsjednika o referendumu.

Aktuelno pitanje je referendum koji je izglasala skupština RS u nejasno sročenom prijedlogu kojim se osporava nadležnost sudova u Bosni i Hercegovini i visoki predstavnik koji nadgleda implementiranje Dejtonskog mirovnog sporazuma koji je postignut prije skoro 20 godina:

Da li podržavate neustavno i neovlašteno nametanje zakona od strane visokog predstavnika međunarodne zajednice u Bosni i Hercegovini, posebno nametnute zakone o sudstvu i tužilaštvu u BiH, kao i implementiranje njihovih odluka na teritoriji Republike Srpske?

Visoki predstavnik je razmatrao pravna pitanja koja za sobom nosi referendum u Specijalnom izvještaju visokog predstavnika za generalnog sekretara UN o implementiranju GFAP u BiH. Zakon o referendumu još nije objavljen u Službenom listu. Umjesto da nastavi s tim kao i obično, predsjednik RS i vlada koriste prijetnju referendumom kako bi izvukli koncesije od Evropske unije, koja je angažirana sa RS u naizgled neprekidnom dijalogu o njenom sudskom sistemu.

Prepustiću pravna pitanja advokatima. Kakav je diplomatski uticaj onog što RS radi?

Evo šta sam rekao premijerki: prijedlog o referendumu uvjerava mnoge ljude u Vašingtonu da RS radi pogrešno na tako neodobravajući način da nezamislivo čini zamislivim: sankcioniranje zvaničnika RS pa čak i ukidanje entiteta, koji su bit Dejtonskog sporazuma.

Reakcija je manje dramatična u EU koja se još nada da će angažirati RS i Bosance uopće za reformske procese s namjerom da se ublaže oštrice entiteske strukture zemlje i omogućiti da se postigne brži napredak kako bi zemlja postala kandidat za priključenje u EU. Evropljanima želim svako dobro u tom naporu, koji podržavaju međunarodne finansijske institucije od kojih zavise oba entiteta i državna vlada u Bosni. Reformski plan EU znači da su Evropljani manje spremni da se pridruže SAD u energičnoj akciji protiv prijedloga o referendumu.

To je veoma loše, jer tek kad RS vidi da Evropa i SAD zbijaju redove i da su spremne da učine nešto dramatično to će uroditi slatkim plodom. To je ono što se desilo sa arbitražom o Brčkom koja je reintegrirala jedan od najspornijih dijelova imovine u zemlji i sa reformom o odbrani koja je prije deset godina ujedinila vojske u Bosni. Sve dok Evropljani i Amerikanci ne odluče da djeluju zajedno na konkretan način, nećemo vidjeti puno napretka.

Neki će se pitati zašto sam uopće prisustvovao sastanku u očekivanju da čujem prijedloge kojima zamjeram.

Moj opći pristup životu kao privatnog građanina i profesora jeste da sam voljan saslušati svakog stranca kome USG dopusti ulazak u zemlju (a sasvim ih je malo kojima ulazak nije dopušten). Moja spremnost da saslušam ni na koji način nije znak sporazuma ili čak mekoće. Bio sam apsolutno jasan da je Dodikovo poigravanje sa referendumom i što ga koristi da izvuče koncesije od EU štetno ne samo za njegovu reputaciju nego i za održivost RS. Katastrofa je termin koji sam upotrijebio da opišem vjerovatan ishod.

Govorim to tako javno da nema sumnje u moje stavove. Diskutabilno je da li treba da dopustimo RS da nastavi da postoji nakon rata u Bosni kako bi se održao mir. Mir je potrajao i zbog toga treba da budemo zahvalni. Ali institucije nisu obavezno vječne. Ako RS nastavi na svom kontraproduktivnom putu, Amerikanci i Evropljani treba da donesu logičan zaključak.

I today attended a meeting with Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Željka Cvijanović, who is in Washington talking about reducing government Bosnia’s bureaucracies and decentralizing the Bosnian state. I can agree with her general stance on those questions. But she neglected to mention in an initial brief presentation at a meeting hosted by Foreign Policy her President’s referendum proposals.

The current issue is a referendum called by the RS assembly on a vaguely worded proposition that challenges the authority of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s courts and of the High Representative who supervises implementation of the Dayton peace agreements reached almost 20 years ago:

Do you support the unconstitutional and unauthorized imposition of laws by the High Representative of the International Community in Bosnia and Herzegovina, particularly the imposed laws on the Court and Prosecutor’s Office of BiH and the implementation of their decisions on the territory of Republika Srpska?

The High Representative has discussed the legal issues the referendum raises in aSpecial Report of the High Representative to the Secretary General of the UN on the Implementation of the GFAP in BiH. The law on the referendum has not yet been published in the Official Gazette. Instead of proceeding as usual with that, the RS President and government are using the threat of the referendum to extract concessions from the European Union, which is engaged with RS in a seemingly interminable dialogue on its justice system.

I will leave the legal issues to the lawyers. What is the diplomatic impact of what RS is doing?

What I told the Prime Minister is this: the referendum proposal is convincing a lot of people in Washington that RS is doing the wrong thing in such an objectionable fashion that it is making the unthinkable thinkable: sanctioning RS officials and even abolishing the entities, which are the heart of the Dayton agreements.

The reaction is less dramatic in the EU, which still hopes to engage the RS and the Bosnians in general in reform processes intended to soften the edges of the country’s entity structure and enable it to make faster progress towards becoming a candidate for EU accession. I wish the Europeans well in that effort, which is backed by the international financial institutions on which both entities and the state government in Bosnia depend. The EU reform plan means the Europeans are less likely to join the US in vigorous action against the referendum proposal.

That is too bad, because only when the RS sees Europe and the US closing ranks and getting ready to do something dramatic will it yield to sweet reason. That is what happened with the Brcko arbitration that reintegrated one of the most contested pieces of real estate in the country and with defense reform that unified the armies in Bosnia ten years ago. Until the Europeans and Americans decide to act together in a concerted way, we’ll see little progress.

Some will wonder why I even attended a meeting at which I was bound to hear propositions that I object to.

My general approach to life as a private citizen and professor is that I am willing to listen to any foreigner the USG allows into the country (and quite a few it won’t allow in). My willingness to listen is in no way an indication of agreement or even softness. I was absolutely clear that Dodik’s toying with the referendum and using it to extract concessions from the EU is damaging not only his reputation but the viability of the RS. Catastrophic was the term I used to describe the likely I am saying so publicly as well so there is no doubt about my views. It is arguable that we needed to allow the RS to continue to exist at the end of the Bosnian war in order to make peace. The peace has lasted, and for that we should all be grateful. But institutions are not necessarily forever. If the RS continues on its counterprodutive path, Americans and Europeans should reach the logical conclusion.

Daniel Serwer

Daniel Serwer

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Prevod: Dijalog BiH2.0

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