EU-inside (Adelina Marini):

Evropski Semestar za BiH – novi instrument za stare probleme

U ovom smislu, najveći izazov je poslovno okruženje. Bosna i Hercegovina ima 11 preporuka, uključujući poboljšanje budžetske administracije, stvaranje fiskalnog vijeća, efikasnu implementaciju zakona o budžetu, restruktuiranje, privatizaciju i efikasno poboljšanje državnih kompanija, posebno u Federaciji. Od države se očekuje da smanji troškove za početak ili okončanje poslovanja, da riješi problem nenaplativih pozajmica, stvori jedinstven ekonomski prostor i unutrašnju saradnju, stvaranje politike i strategije transporta. Takođe se savjetuje stvaranje energetske strategije.

17.06.2015.

EU-inside (Adelina Marini):

European Semester for BiH – a New Instrument for Old Problems

In this sense, the business environment is the biggest challenge. Bosnia and Herzegovina has 11 recommendations, including improvement of budget administration, creation of a fiscal council, efficient implementation of budget law, restructuring, privatisation, and efficiency improvement of state companies, especially in the Federation. It is expected of the state to further lower the costs for starting or closing a business, to solve the non-performing loans problem, create a unified economic space and internal coordination, creation of transport policy and strategy. The creation of an energy strategy is also advised.

17.06.2015.

Ovo je prva godina u kojoj Evropska komisija izdaje specifične preporuke za zemlje u procesu evropskog proširenja nakon što su bile uključene u Evropski semestar za bližu saradnju ekonomske politike. Odluka da se zemlje iz procesa proširenja uključe u Evropski semestar donesena je još 2013, kad je Evropska komisija predstavila strategiju proširenja za 2014. Glavni razlozi nisu bili samo ozbiljni politički nego i ekonomski problemi s kojima su suočene zemlje kandidati, što zahtijeva duboke strukturalne reforme. Međutim, Semestar je sasvim drukčiji za zemlje kandidate i zemlje članice, što se jasno vidi u specifičnim preporukama. Takođe je drukčiji i za svaku pojedinu zemlju kandidata. Na primjer, EK izdaje dva tipa preporuka za zemlje Zapadnog Balkana i samo jedan za Tursku. Razlog je što zemlje Zapadnog Balkana nemaju funkcionalne tržišne ekonomije a Turska ima.

Stoga se očekuje od zemalja Zapadnog Balkana da identifikuju specifične mjere u njihovim programima reformi u sektoru politike. Ovo je prvi put ove godine da su skicirali takve programe na čemu se baziraju specifične preporuke EK. Zajednička preporuka za zemlje Zapadnog Balkana je da fokusiraju njihovo investiranje na stvaranje regionalnih mreža. Iako su većina tih zemalja bile dio jedinstvene države – bivše Jugoslavije - njihova transportna i energetska infrastruktura je danas izuzetno izolovana. Ovo je snažan akcenat u Berlinskom procesu koji je počeo prošle godine u Berlinu i poslije dugog odsustva kroz inicijativu Njemačke označio povratak EU u region.

Čitajući ekonomske analize šest balkanskih zemalja odmah se primjećuje da Evropski semestar počinje da se prihvata problema koji su godinama ostali neriješeni. Zaključci u ovogodišnjim izvještajima minimalno se razlikuju od prethodnih procjena Evropske komisije. Na ovom stupnju, došlo je do neuspjeha u zemljama članicama EU, iako ima potencijal da inspiriše reforme za probleme Zapadnog Balkana o kojima se raspravljalo u prisustvu njihovih ministara u Vijeću za ekonomska i finansijska pitanja u okviru redovnog ekonomskog dijaloga sa Zapadnim Balkanom.

This is the first year in which the European Commission issues country-specific recommendations to the countries in the European enlargement process after they were included in the European Semester for closer economic policy coordination. The decision to include countries from the enlargement process in the European Semester was made back in 2013 when the European Commission presented the Enlargement Strategy for 2014. Main reason being not just the serious political but also the economic problems that candidate countries are facing, which require deep structural reforms. The Semester, however is quite different for candidates and member states, clearly seen in the specific recommendations. It is also different for each individual candidate country. For example, the EC issues two types of recommendations to the Western Balkan countries and only one to Turkey. Reason is the Western Balkan countries do not have functioning market economies and Turkey does.

This is why the Western Balkan countries are expected to identify specific measures in their programs for sector policy reforms. It is the first time this year that they have drafted such programs and this is what the EC specific recommendations are based on. Common recommendation for all Western Balkan countries is to focus their investments on the creation of regional networks. Although most of these countries were a part of a single state – former Yugoslavia – their transport and energy infrastructures are currently highly isolated. This is a strong accent in the Berlin Process that started last year in Berlin and through Germany’s initiative marked the return of the EU to the region after a long absence.

Reading the economic analyses of the six Balkan states it is immediately noticed the European Semester starts to tackle problems that have been left unsolved for years. The conclusions in this year’s reports have minimum differences with previous European Commission assessments. It is yet to be seen if the European Semester will manage to trigger real reforms. At this stage, it has failed in EU member states, although it has the potential to inspire reforms due to Western Balkan problems being discussed in the presence of their assigned ministers in the Economic and Financial Affairs Council as part of the regular economic dialogue with the Western Balkans.

Bosna i Hercegovina – podcijenjen rizik

Najvažniji zaključak u saopštenjima nakon dijaloga između Vijeća ministara i zemalja Zapadnog Balkana je da se program za ekonomske reforme u Bosni i Hercegovini sastoji od dva odvojena izvještaja za svaki entitet umjesto sveobuhvatnog pregleda mjera da se pokrije cijela zemlja po sektorima. Prema ministrima EU, ovo predstavlja ozbiljnu prepreku za opsežnu procjenu i mogućnost da se preporuče mjere za poboljšanje ekonomske situacije koja je ocijenjena kao pesimistična. Zato je jedna od preporuka Bosni i Hercegovini da stvori jedinstven ekonomski prostor u zemlji rješavajući kompleksan i često kontradiktoran okvir zakona i odredbi između različitih jurisdikcija. Ovo uključuje rješenje problema nedostatka unutrašnje saradnje između svih nivoa vlasti. Takođe je problem i raskorak između zakona i odredbi na svim nivoima vlasti.

U ovom smislu, najveći izazov je poslovno okruženje. Bosna i Hercegovina ima 11 preporuka, uključujući poboljšanje budžetske administracije, stvaranje fiskalnog vijeća, efikasnu implementaciju zakona o budžetu, restruktuiranje, privatizaciju i efikasno poboljšanje državnih kompanija, posebno u Federaciji. Od države se očekuje da smanji troškove za početak ili okončanje poslovanja, da riješi problem nenaplativih pozajmica, stvori jedinstven ekonomski prostor i unutrašnju saradnju, stvaranje politike i strategije transporta. Takođe se savjetuje stvaranje energetske strategije.

Uprkos problemima, očekuje se da će ove godine rast BDP-a u BiH biti 3.4% sa predviđanjima od 4.0% rasta sljedeće godine. Međutim, nezaposlenost je i dalje bolna tačka. Očekuje se da će ove godine iznositi 27.0 %, sa tendencijom sporog pada. Nivo javnog duga BiH je relativno nizak – 38.9 % BDP-a i očekuje se da padne na 31.7% u 2017. BiH ima najniži budžetski deficit u regionu od -1.7% BDP-a.

Bosnia and Herzegovina suffers a highly underestimated risk

The most important conclusion in the statements following the dialogue between the Council of ministers and countries of the Western Balkans is that the program for economic reforms of Bosnia and Herzegovina consists of two separate reports for each entity instead of an overall review of measures to cover the entire country by sectors. According to EU ministers this poses a serious obstacle to a comprehensive assessment of measures and the possibility to recommend steps for improvement of the economic situation, which is appraised as pessimistic. This is why one of the recommendations to Bosnia and Herzegovina is to create a single economic space within the country by resolving the complex and often contradictory law and regulation frameworks between the different jurisdictions. This includes solving the problem of missing internal coordination between all government levels. Discrepancies between laws and regulations on all levels of governance are also a problem.

In this sense, the business environment is the biggest challenge. Bosnia and Herzegovina has 11 recommendations, including improvement of budget administration, creation of a fiscal council, efficient implementation of budget law, restructuring, privatisation, and efficiency improvement of state companies, especially in the Federation. It is expected of the state to further lower the costs for starting or closing a business, to solve the non-performing loans problem, create a unified economic space and internal coordination, creation of transport policy and strategy. The creation of an energy strategy is also advised.

Despite problems, BiH GDP is expected to grow this year by 3.4% with a forecast for 4.0% growth next year. Unemployment, however, continues to soar. It is expected to be 27.0% this year with a tendency for slow decline. The level of public debt of BiH is relatively low – 38.9% of GDP and is expected to drop to 31.7% in 2017. BiH has the lowest budget deficit in the region at -1.7% GDP.

EU-inside (Adelina Marini)

EU-inside (Adelina Marini)

Tekst je prvobitno objavljen na EU-inside portalu (16.06.2015).

Prevod: Dijalog BiH2.0

This article was originally published on the EU-inside portal (16.06.2015).

Odgovornost za informacije i gledišta iznesena u ovom članku, isključivo leži na autorima i nužno ne odražavaju mišljenje urednika Dialogue - BiH2.0 – Dijalog, njegovog savjetodavnog odbora, Tufts univerziteta, partnera, pobornika i donatora.

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