“Iako su u novije vrijeme zemlje Zapadnog Balkana postigle značajan napredak u pogledu ekonomske stabilnosti, njihove ekonomije su i dalje ranjive. Deficit na tekućem računu je neizbježan”, tvrdi dr Tunali.

Kao što je pokazao nedavni specijalni izvještaj Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda (MMF), poslije političkih i ekonomskih nemira 1990-ih region – Albanija, Bosna i Hercegovina, Hrvatska, Bivša Jugoslovenska Republika Makedonija i Srbija – je ušao u proces reformi liberalizacijom njihovih trgovinskih i kapitalnih računa, uklanjanjem prepreka za razvoj privatnog sektora i osnivanjem institucija potrebnih za funkcionisanje mehanizma tržišta. Prema brojkama, međutim, Zapadni Balkan još uvijek ima veoma nizak BDP po glavi stanovnika u poređenju sa članicama Evropske unije (grafikon 1). Dok je BDP po glavi u Hrvatskoj – najmlađoj članici Unije – veoma blizak prosjeku novih zemalja članica (EU-10), znatno zaostaje iza prosjeka BDP-a po glavi stanovnika članica osnovnih zemalja EU (EU-15). BDP po glavi stanovnika u drugim zemljama u regionu nije čak ni na nivou pola prosjeka BDP-a ni EU-15 ni EU-10. Otud, kako je izjavio Dimitar Bechev u nedavnom izvještaju, zemlje Zapadnog Balkana predstavljaju ‘periferiju periferije’ Evrope.

‘Even though the Western Balkan countries have made a significant progress in terms of economic stability in recent years, their economies are still vulnerable. Current account deficits are unavoidable’, argues Dr Tunali

As shown by a recent special report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after the political and economic disorders of 1990s the region – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR of Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia – embarked on a reform process by liberalizing their trade and capital accounts, removing the obstacles which prevent the development of private sectors and founding the institutions necessary for the functioning of the market mechanism. According to the figures, however, the Western Balkans still have very low GDP per capita levels in comparison to the members of the European Union (Figure 1). While the GDP per capita of Croatia – the most junior member of the Union – is very close to the new member states’ (EU-10) average, it considerably falls behind the average GDP per capita of the EU’s core members (EU-15). GDP per capita levels of the other countries in the region are not even half of the average GDP per capita levels of either EU-15 or EU-10. Hence, stated by Dimitar Bechev in a recent paper, the Western Balkan countries constitute “the periphery of the periphery” of Europe.

Zemlje Zapadnog Balkana iskusile su velike ekonomske probleme, prije svega kao rezultat globalne ekonomske krize 2008, uz Hrvatsku koja nije bila u stanju da se otad oporavi. Tvrdim da je, među ključnim izazovima s kojima se suočavaju te zemlje, posebno značajan i zaslužuje veću pažnju problem vanjskog debalansa ili deficit na tekućem računu (negativna neto prodaja u inozemstvu ili da kažemo drugim riječima: zemlja uvozi više nego što izvozi).

Grafikon 1 pokazuje bilans tekućeg računa u zemljama Zapadnog Balkana u periodu 2005-2013. Kao što grafikon jasno pokazuje, zemlje Zapadnog Balkana imale su ogroman deficit na tekućem računu tokom tog perioda koji je još više porastao po izbijanju globalne ekonomske krize 2008. Osim Hrvatske, Makedonije i Crne Gore, prosječan deficit na tekućem računu zemalja Zapadnog Balkana u periodu istraživanja iznosio je oko 10 posto BDP-a. Dok su Hrvatska i Makedonija prva i druga najbolja zemlja sa prosječnim deficitom na tekućem računu od 3.76 i 4.37 posto BDP-a između 2005 i 2013, Crna Gora ima najveći deficit na tekućem računu (prosječan deficit na tekućem računu je 27.39 posto BDP-a) i nalazi se u najgorem položaju među zemljama Zapadnog Balkana.

The Western Balkan countries have experienced severe economic troubles, specifically as a result of the 2008 Global Economic Crisis, with Croatia not being able to recover since. I argue that, among the key challenges faced by these countries, the problem of external imbalances or current account deficits (negative net sales abroad, or putting it in simple words: a country imports more than it exports) is a particularly significant one that would be deserving of more attention.

Figure 1 shows the current account balances of the Western Balkan countries over the period 2005-2013. As clearly shown by the figure, the Western Balkan countries had huge current account deficits during this period and they skyrocketed at the outbreak of the 2008 Global Economic Crisis. Except for Croatia, Macedonia and Montenegro, the average current account deficit of the Western Balkan countries over the period under investigation was around 10 percent of GDP. While Croatia and Macedonia are the first and second best countries with an average current account deficit of 3.76 and 4.37 percent of GDP between 2005 and 2013 respectively, Montenegro has the highest current account deficit (the average current account deficit is 27.39 percent of GDP) and it is in the worst position among the Western Balkan countries.

Jedna od izrazitih crta vanjskog debalansa u zemljama Zapadnog Balkana je značajna razlika između tekućeg računa i trgovinskog deficita. Prema statistici Svjetske banke, sa izuzetkom Hrvatske i Makedonije, razlika između prosječnog tekućeg računa i trgovinskog deficita u periodu 2005-2013. je između 7.15 (Srbija) i 25.17 (Kosovo). Ova velika razlika uglavnom proističe iz novčanih pošiljki radnika. Grafikon 3 pokazuje prosjek novčanih pošiljki radnika u tim zemljama kao procenat BDP-a između 2005. i 2013. Kako je očito iz tih brojeva, pošiljke radnika su posebno visoke u Albaniji, Bosni i Hercegovini i Hrvatskoj. Iako se pošiljke radnika mogu vidjeti kao rješenje za nedostatak međunarodne razmjene u razvijenim zemljama, priliv strane valute ovim kanalom može takođe dovesti do znatnog broja negativnih efekata na ekonomiju zemlje primaoca. Jedan od tih negativnih efekata je takozvana ‘holandska bolest’ koja je opisana kao fenomen koji se dešava zbog ogromnog priliva stranog novca i rezultira u priznanju domaće valute i stoga smanjenju konkurentnosti sektora izvoza. Stoga pošiljke radnika treba da se koriste da povećaju kapacitet izvoza zemalja primaoca kako bi se izbjegle te negativne nus pojave. Ovo je posebno važno za zemlje Zapadnog Balkana s obzirom na to da su im potrebni jaki sektori izvoza.

One of the striking features of the external imbalances in the Western Balkan countries is the significant difference between the current account and the trade deficits. According to the World Bank statistics, with the exception of Croatia and Macedonia, the difference between the average current account and trade deficits over the 2005-2013 period is between 7.15 (Serbia) and 25.17 (Kosovo) percent of GDP. This big difference mainly stems from the workers’ remittances. Figure 3 shows the average of the workers’ remittances in these countries as a percent of GDP between 2005 and 2013. As it is obvious from the figures, workers’ remittances are rather high particularly in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia. Although workers’ remittances can be seen as a panacea for the foreign exchange shortage in developing countries, the inflow of foreign exchange by this channel may also lead to a number of negative effects on the receiving economy. One of these negative effects is the so-called “Dutch Disease” which is described as a phenomenon that occurs due to the large inflow of foreign currency and results in the appreciation of domestic currency and thereby the decrease of the export sectors’ competitiveness. Thus, workers’ remittances should be used to increase the export capacity of the recipient countries in order to avoid these negative side effects. This is especially significant in the Western Balkan countries given that they need to have strong export sectors.

Besumnje, kad uzmemo u obzir nivo ekonomskog razvoja Zapadnog Balkana, postaje očito da je deficit na tekućem računu neizbježan za te zemlje ako žele da provedu ulaganja koja su potrebna da se uhvati korak sa razvijenim zemljama, pošto je stopa domaće štednje u tim zemljama sasvim niska a deficit na tekućem računu omogućuje tim zemaljama da ulažu više nego što su im domaće uštede. Ipak, ogroman i stalan deficit na tekućem računu može dovesti do krize povećavajući ranjivost ekonomije, osim ako ne bude finansirana dugoročnim, stabilnim prilivom kapitala kao što su direktne strane investicije (bilo privatne ili institucijske, kao što su EBRD ili EIB).

S ove tačke gledišta, značajno je ispitati iznos deficita na tekućem računu koji je finansiran prilivom direktnog stranog ulaganja u zemlje Zapadnog Balkana. Grafikon 4 pokazuje direktna strana ulaganja u balans an tekućem računu za ove zemlje u periodu 2005-2013. Prema ovom grafikonu, iako je priliv direktnog stranog ulaganja bio veći od deficita na tekućem računu u većini zemalja Zapadnog Balkana (osim u Albaniji, Crnoj Gori i Srbiji), upravo uoči globalne ekonomske krize 2008. taj priliv je opao poslije krize. Što je važnije, ogroman iznos direktnog stranog ulaganja otišao je u netrgovinske sektore na Zapadnom Balkanu (Kinoshita 2011). Otud, ovi prilivi ne doprinose kapacitetu izvoza i stoga ne pomažu da se dugoročno razriješi vanjski debalans na Zapadnom Balkanu.

Without doubt, when we take into account the level of economic development of the Western Balkans, it becomes obvious that current account deficits are unavoidable for these countries in order to carry out the investments which are required to catch up with the developed countries, since domestic saving rates of these countries are quite low and current account deficits enable these countries to invest more than their domestic savings. However, large and persistent current account deficits may cause a crisis by increasing the vulnerability of the economies, unless it is financed by long-term, stable capital inflows such as foreign direct investment (either private or institutional, such as EBRD or EIB).

From this point of view, it is significant to investigate the amount of current account deficit that is financed by foreign direct investment inflows in the Western Balkan countries. Figure 4 presents foreign direct investment to current account balance ratio for these countries over the period 2005-2013. According to this figure, although foreign direct investment inflows were in excess of current account deficits in most of the Western Balkan countries (except Albania, Montenegro and Serbia), just before the onset of the 2008 Global Economic Crisis these inflows fell short of the deficits after the crisis. More importantly, the large amount of foreign direct investment has flown to non-tradable sectors in the Western Balkans (Kinoshita, 2011). Hence, these inflows do not contribute to the export capacity and consequently do not help to solve the external imbalances of the Western Balkans in the long-term.

U biti, iako su posljednjih godina zemlje Zapadnog Balkana učinile značajan napredak u pogledu ekonomske stabilnosti, njihova ekonomija je još ranjiva zbog gorućih ekonomskih problema. S obzirom na nizak nivo razvoja tih zemalja, očito je da je deficit na tekućem računu neizbježan kako bi se provela ulaganja potrebna za usklađivanje sa razvijenim zemljama. Stoga zemlje Zapadnog Balkana trebaju odlučno implementirati strukturalne reforme koje nude ekonomsku stabilnost i vode do većeg direktnog stranog ulaganja u izvozni sektor. Kako je istaknuto u nedavnoj studiji Evropske komisije, rigidnost na tržištu rada, neefikasan pravni sistem koji nije u stanju da osigura vladavinu zakona, veliki udjeli javnog sektora i postojanje nerazvijenog finansijskog tržišta su ključna područja u kojima su neophodne strukturalne reforme.

In a nutshell, even though the Western Balkan countries have made a significant progress in terms of economic stability in recent years, their economies are still vulnerable because of the severe economic problems. Considering the low level of development of these countries, it is obvious that current account deficits are unavoidable in order to carry out the investments necessary for the convergence to the developed countries. Hence, the Western Balkan countries should firmly implement structural reforms which provide economic stability and lead to higher foreign direct investments in export sectors. As pointed out in a recent study by the European Commission, rigidities in the labour markets, inefficient legal systems which are not capable of ensuring rule of law, large shares of public sectors and the existence of underdeveloped financial markets are the key areas in which the structural reforms are strongly needed.