Protesti u februaru i plenumi građana tokom februara i marta su, nadam se, početak jednog novog diskursa u Bosni i Hercegovini koji pokazuje da je politika participatoran koncept i da zaista predstavlja proces. Činjenica da je, kako se čini, postignuto nekoliko promjena preko noći, i to doslovno, tokom februara, za mene ne predstavlja ništa negativno, jer se nijedna promjena ne dešava preko noći.

Ono što mene brine i što sam želio da se desi je da se održi energija i građanska dinamika kojoj smo svjedočili u februaru, te da vidimo sličnu mobilizaciju, uspostavljene socijalne mreže, razvoj socijalnih organizacijskih mreža i njihov pokušaj da utječu na političke procese izvana, jer je to od vitalnog značaja za Bosnu i Hercegovinu. Trenutno vidimo zaleđen politički proces u smislu da je politika u Bosni i Hercegovini postala sport za široku publiku.

Građani jednostavno iz daljine posmatraju sukobljavanje elita. Oni ne idu glasati jer su potpuno razočarani onim što vide oko sebe. Ali istovremeno nisu spremni da sudjeluju u protestima koji mogu potkopati i preokrenuti takvu dinamiku. Ako imamo takvo stanje, onda se ništa neće promijeniti. Ljudi moraju ili glasati ili sudjelovati u protestima ili u idealnom slučaju činiti oboje. Ukoliko ne rade ništa od navedenog, onda se ništa neće promijeniti. To je vrlo jednostavna dinamika.

U tom smislu je istinita izreka koja kaže da ljudi imaju vladu kakvu zaslužuju. Ukoliko građani Bosne i Hercegovine nisu spremni da postanu važan politički faktor koji utječe na politiku zemlje, onda će i ostati na margini. Zvuči banalno, ali bitno je govoriti o tome.

U vezi sa tom situacijom, smatram da su poplave ozbiljno narušile energiju koja je postojala u plenumima. Njih su već bili marginalizirali policija, mediji i različiti akteri u političkom establišmentu i mislim da su poplave uslijedile u tom trenutku, a preostale jedinice plenuma preuzele su ulogu humanitarnih organizacija. Išli su da pomognu ljudima kojima je pomoć tada bila potrebna, uzgred rečeno radili su ono što država nije radila niti u RS-u, niti u Federaciji. Smatram da su poplave dosta doprinijele tome da se uvidi da RS nije ništa kompetentnije vođen entitet nego Federacija.

Mislim da je ovo bila veoma važna godina za Bosnu i Hercegovinu u smislu da se približavamo kraju i spoznaji da je cjelokupni ustavni poredak iscrpljen. Desit će se stanovite promjene u Bosni i Hercegovini. Ako ni iz kojeg drugog razloga onda zato što smatram da ovakav sistem ne može opstati. Nisam spreman da dajem neki vremenski okvir, uzimajući u obzir da postoji 1001 faktor koji je relevantan u ovom procesu, ali dejtonski ustavni poredak neće opstati još dvadeset godina. Toliko mogu zasigurno reći.

Što prije se desi ta promjena to bolje, a ukoliko ova promjena bude participatornog karaktera, onda će više građana iz svih sektora sudjelovati u njemu, ne samo iz različitih etničkih skupina, već iz udruženja žena, udruženja mladih, LGBT grupa i svih ostalih društvenih organizacija o kojima možemo govoriti.

Što više različitih glasova postane relevantno u procesu ustavne reforme, to će bolje biti za državu u cjelini i za sve koji u njoj žive.

The protests in February and the plenums in February and March began, I hope, a new kind of discourse in Bosnia, which is recognition that politics as a concept is participatory and it is indeed a process. So the fact that a few changes seemingly were accomplished overnight, quite literally, over the course of February, is to me not a negative thing, because change doesn’t happen over night.

What I’m concerned about or what I want to have happened is that that energy and that popular dynamic that we saw at work in February continues and that we see similar mobilizations, established social networks, social organizational networks developing and attempting to influence the political process from the outside, because that’s absolutely vital for Bosnia. We have a captured political process right now in the sense that politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina is a spectator sport.

People just watch these elite disputes play out in front of them. They don’t show up to vote, because they are completely disillusioned by what they see in front of them. At the same time, they are not willing to participate in protests that will subvert that dynamic and turn it on its head. If that’s what we’re dealing with, then nothing will change. You either have to vote or you have to protest, or you have to do both ideally. If you do neither one, nothing will change. That’s a very simple dynamic.

In that sense, there is some truth to that old adage that the people have the government they deserve. If the people in Bosnia are not prepared to become a political factor that influences the politics of the country then they will remain a non-factor. It’s banal to say, but it’s a significant thing to talk about.

I think the floods, as it relates to this situation, did a tremendous amount of damage to the energy that existed around the plenums. They were already being marginalized by the police, the media and various actors within the political establishment, but I think the floods came along at a moment and the remaining plenum cells became humanitarian bodies. They went to help people who needed it in that moment, something that the state incidentally was not doing, neither the RS nor the Federation. I think the floods, at the very least, did a tremendous amount of service in illustrating that the RS is no more of a competently managed entity than the Federation.

I think this was a very important year for Bosnia in a sense that we’re starting to reach the end, and the recognition that this entire constitutional order is exhausted. Significant change is coming to Bosnia. If for no other reason than that I really do not believe that this system can survive. I’m not prepared to give a timeline necessarily, because there are 1001 factors that are relevant to that process, but the Dayton constitutional order will not survive another twenty years. I would certainly say that much.

The sooner this change happens, the better and moreover, the more participatory this change is, the more people are involved in it from all sectors, not just from the different ethnic communities, but from women’s groups, youth groups, LGBT groups and any number of other social organizations that we can talk about.

The more voices are recognized as being relevant to the process of constitutional reform, the better it will be for the country as a whole and everyone in it.