SLJEDEĆI KORAK JE IMPLEMENTACIJA

Sada su političari i parlament formalno potvrdili svoju podršku, a sljedeći korak je implementacija mnogih izazovnih zadataka na koje su se obavezali.

Sljedećih sedmica akcioni plan za realizaciju top prioriteta u socio-ekonomskoj reformi razradiće se između EU i BiH. Eksperti iz međunarodnih finansijskih institucija (IFI) će aktivno učestvovati u izradi ove početne reformske agende, kao i predstavnici civilnog društva u Bosni.

KRENUTI NAPRIJED, NEMA DRUGOG PUTA

Jasno je da je suviše rano predviđati koje su šanse da Agenda za reforme uspije.

U ovoj fazi, barem, pozitivan je znak da su nacrt, odobravanje i podrška teksta pismenog opredjeljenja išli dosta dobro. Nisam čuo ni za kakve temeljne primjedbe za namjeru ili cilj izjašnjenja.

Ovo ohrabruje pošto pokazuje da, najzad, kako izgleda, svi političari i parlamentarci razumiju da nema drugog puta nego ići naprijed: u sljedećih četiri do pet godina, vlasti u BiH na svim nivoima moraju da se suoče s nekim veoma ozbiljnim izazovima. Svi prijatelji BiH vjeruju da reforme potrebne za integraciju u EU mogu takođe pomoći da se uradi nešto sa tim statistikama koje su koliko poznate toliko i depresivne:

Zemlja ima najveću stopu nezaposlenosti mladih u Evropi (preko 60 posto aktivne populacije starosti 15-24); Druga najveća stopa sveukopne nezaposlenosti u Evropi (28% radne snage); najniža na listi evropskih zemalja prema pokazateljima Doing Business Svjetske banke i jedna od najnižih stopa među evropskim zemljama po Indeksu korupcije.

Naglašavajući stvarne probleme građani BiH moraju da se s njima suočavaju na dnevnoj osnovi, posebno kad je riječ o nezaposlenosti i siromaštvu, i ne mogu se opet odlagati. Uspjeh i brzina suočavanja sa prioritetima na ovoj agendi će u potpunosti zavisiti od političkog i institucionalnog vođstva zemlje. Stoga, pravi test njihovog opredjeljenja je u implementaciji.

THE NEXT STEP IS IMPLEMENTATION

Now that politicians and parliamentarians have formally confirmed their support, the next step is implementation of the many challenging tasks that they have committed themselves to.

In the coming weeks, an action plan for the realization of the top priorities in socio-economic reform will be worked out between the EU and BiH. Experts from the international financial institutions (IFI’s) will actively participate in the drafting of this initial reform agenda and so will representatives of Bosnia’s civil society.

GO FORWARD, THERE IS NO OTHER WAY

Clearly, it is too early to predict what the chances are for the Agenda for Reform to succeed.

At this phase, at least, a positive sign is that the drafting, approving and endorsing of the text of the written commitments went rather well. I did not hear any fundamental objections to the purpose or intent of the commitments.

That is encouraging, as it shows that, finally, all politicians and parliamentarians seem to understand that there is no other way than to go forward: in the next four of five years, the authorities of BiH at all levels have to face some very serious challenges. All friends of BiH believe that the reforms needed for EU integration can also help to do something about these statistics that are as familiar as they are depressing:

The country has the highest rate of youth unemployment in Europe (over 60 percent of the active population aged 15-24); the second-highest rate of overall unemployment in Europe (28 percent of the labour force); the lowest ranking of European countries on the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business indicators and one of the lowest rankings of European countries in the Corruption Perceptions Index.

Addressing the real problems the citizens of BiH have to deal with on a daily basis, particularly unemployment and poverty, cannot be postponed again. The success and speed of confronting the priorities on this agenda will depend entirely on the political and institutional leadership of the country. Therefore, the real test of their commitment is in the implementation.

PLAN ZA 2015: ‘KRENUTI S TIM’

Ubijeđen sam da EU – zemlje članice, Komisija i druge institucije EU – planira da učini sve što je potrebno da bi se BiH ohrabrila da krene naprijed na putu za priključenje. Odgovornosti EU u ovom pogledu mogu se vidjeti u zaključcima Savjeta Evrope od 14. decembra prošle godine.

Plan je da IFI sa svoje strane koordinira ovaj pristup i akciju što bliže sa onima EU.

Očito ne mogu govoriti u ime njih, ali očekujem da drugi važni donatori i prijatelji BiH, kao što su SAD, Norveška, Japan, Turska i Švajcarska imaju namjeru da s velikim zanimanjem prate razvoj u okviru inicijative EU. S obzirom na impresivnu evidenciju onih koji podržavaju ovu zemlju, siguran sam da planiraju aktivno podržati napor EU gdje je to moguće i korisno.

Ali sve ovo neće biti od koristi ako bosanski politički lideri i institucionalne vlasti nisu iskreni u svečanom obećanju da će se neopozivo držati ‘potpisanog opredjeljenja’ koje su dali. Njihov jedini plan za 2015. treba da bude – mora da bude – da se proritetne reforme Sporazuma rasta pokrenu i to bez odlaganja.

Bez odlaganja jer su već trebali početi sa realizaciom a vrijeme ističe: ovo je četvrti pokušaj međunarodne zajednice zaredom da pomogne BiH da napravi napredak.

Problemi ove zemlje više nisu top prioritet na agendi svjetskih lidera. Poslije skoro 20 godina stalne podrške, mnoge zemlje donatori očekuju da vide neke pozitivne rezultate; znam da je Holandija donator koji bi volio vidjeti i neki rezultat od investiranja.

Uostalom, moja zemlja je među pet prvih bilateralnih donatora, u 20 godina podržali smo BiH sa iznosom od 580 miliona eura. Stoga me svaki put vrijeđa kad vidim koje mjesto BiH zauzima na raznim drugim listama, na primjer, na listama Transparency International i Wall Street Journal: u mnogim aspektima ova potencijalna zemlja članica EU je u istoj ravni sa potvrđenim slučajevima iz Trećeg svijeta. To je krajnje nepotrebno, s obzirom na potencijal ove zemlje i njen narod. I mogu dodati: s obzirom na količinu podrške koju je dosad primila.

Znamo: nijedan reformski proces nije lak. Ali jedna od cijena nedonošenja reformi jeste da mladi ljudi neće imati budućnost u vlastitoj zemlji. Stoga se nadam da ovaj put niko neće željeti da se opet krije iza ‘bosanskog izuzetka’ (“Dejton”, “Rat”, “naša teška istorija”). U mnogim aspektima Bosna nije jedinstvena. Nekoliko evropskih zemalja je preokreulo nefunkcionalne ekonomije, prevazilazeći tešku prošlost ili komplikovani ustroj u njihovom društvu. Samo upitajte Poljake ili Latvijce, a ima i drugih.

Dosad mora biti očito svakom političaru, zvaničniku ili administrativcu u ovoj zemlji šta treba da se uradi. Stoga njihov plan za 2015. kreba da bude jednostavan: ‘Krenimo s tim.’

THE PLAN FOR 2015: ‘GET ON WITH IT’

I am convinced that the EU – the member states, the Commission and the other EU institutions – plan to do whatever is necessary to encourage BiH to move forward on its way to accession. The responsibilities of the EU in this respect can be found in the conclusions of the European Council of 14 December of last year.

The plan is that the IFI’s for their part will coordinate their approach and action as closely as possible with those of the EU.

Obviously, I cannot speak for them, but I expect that other important donors and friends of BiH, like the US, Norway, Japan, Turkey and Switzerland, intend to follow developments in the framework of the EU Initiative with great interest. Given their impressive track-records as supporters of this country, I am sure they plan to actively back the EU effort, where possible and useful.

But all of this is to no avail, if the Bosnian political leaders and institutional authorities are not sincere in the solemn promises to stick to the ‘irrevocable, written commitment’ they have made. Their only plan for 2015 should be – must be – to tackle the reform priorities of the Compact for Growth head on and without delay.

Without delay, because, by now, they ought to realize that time is running out: this is the fourth (4th!) attempt by the international community in a row to help BiH make progress.

The problems of this country are no longer a top priority on the agenda of world leaders.

After almost 20 years of non-stop support, many donor countries expect to see some positive results; I know the Netherlands is one donor who would like to see some return on investment.

After all, my country is in the Top Five of bilateral donors; in 20 years we have supported BiH to the tune of 580 Million EURO and counting. Therefore, I am mortified each time I see Bosnia’s ranking on various other lists, of Transparency International and the Wall Street Journal, for instance: in many respects, this potential member state of the EU is on par with certified basket cases from the Third World. That is utterly unnecessary, given the potential of this country and of its people. And may I add: given the amount of support received so far.

We know: no reform process is easy. But one of the costs of not reforming is that young people will have no future in their own country. So, I hope that this time nobody will want to hide behind ‘the Bosnian Exception’ (“Dayton”, “The War, “our difficult history”) again. In many respects, Bosnia is n o t unique. Quite a few other European countries have had to turn-around a disfunctioning economy, while overcoming a difficult past or a complicated set-up of their societies. Just ask the Poles or the Latvians, and there are quite a few others.

By this time, it must be blindingly obvious to every politician, official or administrator in this country what needs to be done. So, their plan for 2015 should be a simple: ‘Let’s get on with it.’

ŠTA GRAĐANI MOGU DA URADE?

Kao što se očekivalo, nakon 7 do 8 godina poigravanja i prekršenih obećanja političkih lidera, Bosanci su reagovali s cinizmom na inicijativu EU. 72% njih ne daju ovom pokušaju nikakvu šansu za uspjeh, jer osjećaju da politička volja – ponovo – jednostavno ne postoji.

Međutim, ubijeđen sam da obični građani mogu pomoći prisiljavajući odgovorne vlasti ‘da se pokrenu’.

Nadam se da će se Bosanci sjetiti da je Sporazum za rast, na kome se zasniva početna reformska agenda, bio odgovor EU na proteste u februaru 2014. Prije godinu dana, građani, iz svih pora života i iz cijele zemlje, jasno su pokazali šta iznad svega žele: radna mjesta, bolje funkcionisanje vlade i kraj nemilosrdnog egoizma političke klase.

Takođe se nadam da će se svi sjetiti za koga su on ili ona glasali na posljednjim izborima. Zadatak muškaraca i žena u vlasti za koje su ljudi u Bosni glasali 12. oktobra je jasan: lista sa zadacima koje treba uraditi u 2015. i da se održi neopozivo opredjeljenje kako su obećali prošlog ponedjeljka.

Obični ljudi mogu pomoći međunarodnoj zajednici – a najviše oni sami – insistiranjem da se ministri i članovi parlamenta za koje su glasali drže svojih obećanja. Smatrati ih odgovornim je najbolji način da se osigura da ne propadne šansa za pozitivnu promjenu ove ‘neponovljive ponude’. U utorak 23. februara 2016. zatražite da pokažu rezultate koje su do tada postigli.

Najzad, obični građani mogu doprinijeti hrabrim suočavanjem sa činjenicom da je implementacija nekih od šest reformi potrebna na socio-ekonomskom planu da bi se revitalizirala ekonomija i potaklo investiranje i radna mjesta, direktno i snažno. Ali Holandija, i sve druge zemlje članice, sve institucije Evropske unije i IFI su potpono opredijeljeni da pomognu u implementaciji reformi i obezbijede finansijsku pomoć da bi se ublažili kratkoročni efekti.

Istina je i, kao što sam rekao, iskustvo drugih zemalja ovo pokazuje: nema oporavka bez reforme. Neodgovorno je ignorisati ovu jednostavnu istinu, što će stvari još više pogoršati.

Reforme djeluju i daće nagrade.

Juriaan Kraak

WHAT CAN CITIZENS DO?

As was to be expected, after 7 or 8 years of playacting and broken promises by their political leaders, Bosnians reacted with cynicism to the EU Initiative: 72% gives this attempt no chance to succeed, because they feel that the political will – again – is just not there.

However, I am convinced that ordinary citizens can help by forcing the responsible authorities ‘to get on with it’.

For I hope, that Bosnians will remember that the Compact for Growth, on which the initial reform agenda is based, was the EU’s answer to the protests of February 2014. A year ago, citizens, from all walks of life and from all over the country, made it clear what it was that they wanted above all: jobs, better government services, and an end to the ruthless egoism of the political class.

Also, I hope that everybody will remember whom he or she voted for during the last elections. The assignment of the men and women the people of Bosnia voted into office on 12 October is clear: their to-do-list’ for 2015 and beyond spelled out in the irrevocable commitments they have promised last Monday to uphold.

Ordinary people can help the international community – and most of all themselves – by insisting that the ministers and members of parliament they voted for stick to their commitment. Holding them accountable is the best way to ensure that the chance for positive change this ‘non repeatable offer’ holds is not wasted. On Tuesday, 23 February 2016, ask them to show the results they have achieved so far.

Finally, ordinary citizens can contribute by bravely facing the fact that implementing some of the six reforms needed in the socio-economic field to revitalise the economy and spur investment and jobs will hit them directly and will hit them hard. But the Netherlands, and all other member states, all institutions of European Union and the IFI’s are fully committed to help with the implementation of the reforms and to provide financial assistance to alleviate their short-term effects.

The truth is and, as I said, the experience of other countries bears this out: there is no recovery without reform. Ignoring this simple truth is irresponsible and will make matters even worse.

Reforms do work and they give rewards.

Jurriaan Kraak