Ovo je prva godina u kojoj Evropska komisija izdaje specifične preporuke za zemlje u procesu evropskog proširenja nakon što su bile uključene u Evropski semestar za bližu saradnju ekonomske politike.Odluka da se zemlje iz procesa proširenja uključe u Evropski semestar donesena je još 2013, kad je Evropska komisija predstavila strategiju proširenja za 2014.Glavni razlozi nisu bili samo ozbiljni politički nego i ekonomski problemi s kojima su suočene zemlje kandidati, što zahtijeva duboke strukturalne reforme.Međutim, Semestar je sasvim drukčiji za zemlje kandidate i zemlje članice, što se jasno vidi u specifičnim preporukama.Takođe je drukčiji i za svaku pojedinu zemlju kandidata.Na primjer, EK izdaje dva tipa preporuka za zemlje Zapadnog Balkana i samo jedan za Tursku.Razlog je što zemlje Zapadnog Balkana nemaju funkcionalne tržišne ekonomije a Turska ima.

Stoga se očekuje od zemalja Zapadnog Balkana da identifikuju specifične mjere u njihovim programima reformi u sektoru politike. Ovo je prvi put ove godine da su skicirali takve programe na čemu se baziraju specifične preporuke EK. Zajednička preporuka za zemlje Zapadnog Balkana je da fokusiraju njihovo investiranje na stvaranje regionalnih mreža. Iako su većina tih zemalja bile dio jedinstvene države – bivše Jugoslavije - njihova transportna i energetska infrastruktura je danas izuzetno izolovana. Ovo je snažan akcenat u Berlinskom procesu koji je počeo prošle godine u Berlinu i poslije dugog odsustva kroz inicijativu Njemačke označio povratak EU u region.

Čitajući ekonomske analize šest balkanskih zemalja odmah se primjećuje da Evropski semestar počinje da se prihvata problema koji su godinama ostali neriješeni. Zaključci u ovogodišnjim izvještajima minimalno se razlikuju od prethodnih procjena Evropske komisije. Na ovom stupnju, došlo je do neuspjeha u zemljama članicama EU, iako ima potencijal da inspiriše reforme za probleme Zapadnog Balkana o kojima se raspravljalo u prisustvu njihovih ministara u Vijeću za ekonomska i finansijska pitanja u okviru redovnog ekonomskog dijaloga sa Zapadnim Balkanom.

Bosna i Hercegovina – podcijenjen rizik

Najvažniji zaključak u saopštenjima nakon dijaloga između Vijeća ministara i zemalja Zapadnog Balkana je da se program za ekonomske reforme u Bosni i Hercegovini sastoji od dva odvojena izvještaja za svaki entitet umjesto sveobuhvatnog pregleda mjera da se pokrije cijela zemlja po sektorima. Prema ministrima EU, ovo predstavlja ozbiljnu prepreku za opsežnu procjenu i mogućnost da se preporuče mjere za poboljšanje ekonomske situacije koja je ocijenjena kao pesimistična. Zato je jedna od preporuka Bosni i Hercegovini da stvori jedinstven ekonomski prostor u zemlji rješavajući kompleksan i često kontradiktoran okvir zakona i odredbi između različitih jurisdikcija. Ovo uključuje rješenje problema nedostatka unutrašnje saradnje između svih nivoa vlasti. Takođe je problem i raskorak između zakona i odredbi na svim nivoima vlasti.

U ovom smislu, najveći izazov je poslovno okruženje.Bosna i Hercegovina ima 11 preporuka, uključujući poboljšanje budžetske administracije, stvaranje fiskalnog vijeća, efikasnu implementaciju zakona o budžetu, restruktuiranje, privatizaciju i efikasno poboljšanje državnih kompanija, posebno u Federaciji.Od države se očekuje da smanji troškove za početak ili okončanje poslovanja, da riješi problem nenaplativih pozajmica, stvori jedinstven ekonomski prostor i unutrašnju saradnju, stvaranje politike i strategije transporta. Takođe se savjetuje stvaranje energetske strategije.

Uprkos problemima, očekuje se da će ove godine rast BDP-a u BiH biti 3.4% sa predviđanjima od 4.0% rasta sljedeće godine. Međutim, nezaposlenost je i dalje bolna tačka. Očekuje se da će ove godine iznositi 27.0 %, sa tendencijom sporog pada. Nivo javnog duga BiH je relativno nizak – 38.9 % BDP-a i očekuje se da padne na 31.7% u 2017. BiH ima najniži budžetski deficit u regionu od -1.7% BDP-a.

This is the first year in which the European Commission issues country-specific recommendations to the countries in the European enlargement process after they were included in the European Semester for closer economic policy coordination. The decision to include countries from the enlargement process in the European Semester was made back in 2013 when the European Commission presented the Enlargement Strategy for 2014. Main reason being not just the serious political but also the economic problems that candidate countries are facing, which require deep structural reforms. The Semester, however is quite different for candidates and member states, clearly seen in the specific recommendations. It is also different for each individual candidate country. For example, the EC issues two types of recommendations to the Western Balkan countries and only one to Turkey. Reason is the Western Balkan countries do not have functioning market economies and Turkey does.

This is why the Western Balkan countries are expected to identify specific measures in their programs for sector policy reforms. It is the first time this year that they have drafted such programs and this is what the EC specific recommendations are based on. Common recommendation for all Western Balkan countries is to focus their investments on the creation of regional networks. Although most of these countries were a part of a single state – former Yugoslavia – their transport and energy infrastructures are currently highly isolated. This is a strong accent in the Berlin Process that started last year in Berlin and through Germany’s initiative marked the return of the EU to the region after a long absence.

Reading the economic analyses of the six Balkan states it is immediately noticed the European Semester starts to tackle problems that have been left unsolved for years. The conclusions in this year’s reports have minimum differences with previous European Commission assessments. It is yet to be seen if the European Semester will manage to trigger real reforms. At this stage, it has failed in EU member states, although it has the potential to inspire reforms due to Western Balkan problems being discussed in the presence of their assigned ministers in the Economic and Financial Affairs Council as part of the regular economic dialogue with the Western Balkans.

Bosnia and Herzegovina suffers a highly underestimated risk

The most important conclusion in the statements following the dialogue between the Council of ministers and countries of the Western Balkans is that the program for economic reforms of Bosnia and Herzegovina consists of two separate reports for each entity instead of an overall review of measures to cover the entire country by sectors. According to EU ministers this poses a serious obstacle to a comprehensive assessment of measures and the possibility to recommend steps for improvement of the economic situation, which is appraised as pessimistic. This is why one of the recommendations to Bosnia and Herzegovina is to create a single economic space within the country by resolving the complex and often contradictory law and regulation frameworks between the different jurisdictions. This includes solving the problem of missing internal coordination between all government levels. Discrepancies between laws and regulations on all levels of governance are also a problem.

In this sense, the business environment is the biggest challenge. Bosnia and Herzegovina has 11 recommendations, including improvement of budget administration, creation of a fiscal council, efficient implementation of budget law, restructuring, privatisation, and efficiency improvement of state companies, especially in the Federation. It is expected of the state to further lower the costs for starting or closing a business, to solve the non-performing loans problem, create a unified economic space and internal coordination, creation of transport policy and strategy. The creation of an energy strategy is also advised.

Despite problems, BiH GDP is expected to grow this year by 3.4% with a forecast for 4.0% growth next year. Unemployment, however, continues to soar. It is expected to be 27.0% this year with a tendency for slow decline. The level of public debt of BiH is relatively low – 38.9% of GDP and is expected to drop to 31.7% in 2017. BiH has the lowest budget deficit in the region at -1.7% GDP.

Makedonija – očajnička potreba za transparentnošću javnih finansija

Prema EK i Vijeću, najveći izazov s kojim se Makedonija suočava je poboljšanje fiskalne discipline i transparentnost javnih finansija. Devet je preporuka dato bivšoj jugoslovenskoj republici. Poboljšanje javnih finansija, fiskalna konsolidacija, obezbjeđenje podataka o dugu javnih kompanija, državne garancije i neizmirene isplate.Reforma tržišta rada, rješenje problema nenaplativih pozajmica, poboljšanje poslovnog okruženja, borba protiv korupcije i neformalna ekonomija, poboljšanje pristupa finansiranju za mala i srednja preduzeća, ubrzanje procedura stečaja.

Makedonija je prvak (zajedno sa Albanijom) u ekonomskom rastu u regionu. Očekuje se da će ove godine bruto domaći proizvod porasti 4.0 % i još 4.2 % sljedeće godine. Nezaposlenost, iako je među najvećom u regionu – 27.0 % ove godine, uz očekivani pad do 25.9 % sljedeće godine. Sadašnji računski deficit je najniži od svih -3.9 %, ali EK očekuje da sljedeće godine poraste do -4.6 %. Makedonija je zemlja je među nekoliko sa niskim nivoom javnog duga. Međutim, očekuje se da poraste do nivoa od 35.3 % BDP-a u 2015. i 37.3 % sljedeće godine. Budžetski deficit je blizu 3 % limita Pakta stabilmosti i rasta u EU – 3.5 %. Makedonija već deset godina ima status zemlje kandidata, ali je još otvoreno prvo poglavlje pregovora zbog veta Grčke u Vijeću.

Macedonia – desperate need for transparency of public finances

According to EC and the Council the biggest challenge that Macedonia is facing is the improvement of fiscal discipline and transparency of public finances. Nine recommendations have been given to the former Yugoslav republic. Improvement of public finances, fiscal consolidation, providing data on public companies’ debt, state guarantees and outstanding payments.Labour market reform, solving the non-performing loans problem, improvement of business environment, fighting corruption and informal economy, improvement of access to financing for small and medium enterprises, acceleration of bankruptcy procedures.

Macedonia is champion (together with Albania) in economic growth in the region. This year its gross domestic product is expected to grow by 4.0% and another 4.2% next year. Unemployment, though is among the highest in the region – 27.0% this year, expected to drop to 25.9% next year. Current account deficit is lowest of all -3.9% but the EC expects it to grow to -4.6% next year. The country is among the few with low level of public debt. However, it is expected to grow to a level of 35.3% of GDP in 2015 and 37.3% in 2016. Budget deficit is close to the 3% limit of the Stability and Growth Pact in the EU – 3.5%. Macedonia has had the candidate country status for ten years, but is yet to open its first negotiation chapter due to Greece’s veto in the Council.

Ni Srbija ne sprovodi reforme

Ako pratite srbijanske medije možda ćete dobiti utisak da je Srbija pod radikalnom ekonomskom reformom. Srbijanski premijer se hvali dubokim strukturalnim reformama što se ni najmanje ne slaže sa ocjenom EK da “Velike strukturalne promjene za rast, jasno prepoznate u programu, ostaju većinom nepromijenjene od prethodne godine, obuhvatajući pretjeran uticaj države na ekonomiju, nedovoljno razvijen privatni sektor, administrativne i regulatorne barijere za poslovanje, slabu infrastrukturu i nizak nivo investicija, neformalnosti i nedovoljnu konkurentnost u nekim sektorima”.

Sedam je preporuka za Srbiju.Prvo, da ojača fiskalnu konsolidaciju koristeći neočekivan prihod da bi se smanjio budžetski deficit.Pomaže srednjoročnu konsolidaciju implementiranjem planiranih strukturalnih reformi.Unaprijeđenje restrukturiranja i privatizacije državnih preduzeća s preporukom da prioritet budu ona veća.Smanjenje državne pomoći i izvršenje administrativne reforme.Isto kao i Crna Gora, i Srbija ima problema u finansijskom menadžmentu i planiranju budžeta, iako u manjem omjeru.Poboljšanje poslovnog okruženja, kontrola sive ekonomije, pojednostavljenje propisa, reforma tržišta rada i stimulacija privatnog investiranja su ostatak preporuka za Srbiju.

Srbija je jedina ekonomija u regionu od koje se očekuje da ove godine ostane u recesiji. Očekuje se da bruto domaći proizvod padne za 0.5%. Stopa nezaposlenosti u zemlji je među najvećim u regionu – 21.3 % za 2015, uz očekivani pad do 20.9 % sljedeće godine. Saldo tekućeg računa je među najboljim u regionu -4.7 % za 2015. Očekuje da će javni dug dostići 77.7 % BDP-a ove godine i nastaviti s rastom sljedeće godine (79.2 %). Budžetski deficit za 2015.iznosi 5.8 %. Srbija je odmakla korak u procesu evropske integracije dobivši status zemlje kandidata, ali još treba otvoriti prvo poglavlje u pregovorima i nema znaka kad će. Nimalo nije vjerovatno da će pravi pregovori otpočeti ove godine.

Serbia, too, is not reforming

If you follow Serbian media you might be left with the impression that Serbia is under radical economic reform. Serbian Prime Minister’s bragging about deep structural reforms largely disagree with the EC’s assessment that “The major structural obstacles to growth, clearly recognised in the programme, remain mostly unchanged from the previous year, encompassing an excessive state influence in the economy, an underdeveloped private sector, administrative and regulatory barriers to business, poor infrastructure and low level of investment, informalities and insufficient competition in some sectors”.

There are seven recommendations to Serbia. First is to reinforce fiscal consolidation by using unexpected income to lower budget deficit. Aiding medium-term consolidation by implementing planned structural reforms. Advancement of restructuring and privatisation of state-owned enterprises with priority to large ones is also recommended. Reduction of state aid and execution of administrative reform. Same as Montenegro, Serbia has finance management and budget planning problems, although to a lesser degree. Improvement of the business environment, handling grey economy, simplification of regulations, labour market reform, and stimulating private investment are the rest of Serbia’s recommendations.

Serbia is the only economy in the region that is expected to remain in recession this year. Gross domestic product is expected to shrink by 0.5%. Unemployment in the country is among the highest in the region – 21.3% for 2015, expected to drop to 20.9% next year. Current account balance is among the best in the region -4.7% for 2015. Public debt is expected to reach 77.7% of GDP this year and continue to grow into next year (79.2%) Budget deficit for 2015 is 5.8%. Serbia has moved a step forward in the process of European integration by receiving a candidate country status, but is yet to open the first negotiation chapter and there is no indication as to when it will. It is highly unlikely real negotiations will start this year.

Kosovo – suviše zavisi od javnog sektora

Ekonomija Kosova trpi veliku neizvjesnost uz najviše rizike koji potiču iz zavisnosti zemlje od vanjskih i javnih sektora, klime slabog investiranja i loših uvjeta ljudskog kapitala. Kosovo takođe pati i od nedostatka kredibilnog srednjeročnog planiranja budžeta, koji je u ranijim analizama bio istaknut kao veliki problem u većini zemalja Zapadnog Balkana, ali ove godine situacija je sasvim drukčija. Kosovo ostaje najozbiljniji slučaj u ovom pokazatelju.To je jedina zemlja gdje tvrdi da ima nenaplative pozajmice.U isto vrijeme, nivo izvršenja ugovora je veoma nizak. Kamatne stope na pozjamice su suviše visoke odražavajući visok kreditni rizik povezan sa masovnom neformalnošću korporativnog sektora i zakonskog okruženja.

Deset je preporuka za Kosovo. Osim onih redovnih o fiskalnoj disciplini i poboljšanju poslovnog okruženja, specifične preporuke za zemlju fokusirane su na poboljšanje budžetskog procesa, rješenje problema visokih troškova bankovnog finansiranja, nedostatak kontrole velikih projekata infrastrukture, borba protiv korupcije, poboljšanja u javnoj nabavci. Očekuje se da će ekonomski rast Kosova u ovoj godini dostići 4.1 %. S druge strane, zemlja ima najveću stopu nezaposlenosti u regionu – 28.7 % za 2015, sa 29.0 % prošle godine. Kosovo ima najniži javni dug u odnosu na BDP – 12.4 % sada, iako se očekuje da će dug rasti uprkos tome što je budžetski deficit u okviru granica Pakta za stabilizaciju i rast. Očekuje se da će praznina u ovogodišnjem budžetu iznositi -2.1 % BDP-a.

Sjajna je ideja o uvođenju Evropskog semestra u zemlje Zapadnog Balkana i ima potencijal za velike rezultate. Međutim, trebalo bi da ide paralelno sa političkim dijalogom s mnogim od tih zemalja koje, praktično, imaju autoritarne režime, ometajući realizaciju mnogih od očekivanih strukturalnih reformi. Visoka stopa nezaposlenosti u regionu je takođe ogroman problem za EU, stvarajući još veći broj ekonomskih izbjeglica što izaziva više protivnika u mnogim od zemalja članica. Preporučuje se da zemlje članice počnu obraćati veću pažnju na zemlje u regionu nakon što su dugo vremena gledale u drugom pravcu. Ono što je sada važno jeste da se ova pažnja korektno kanališe tamo gdje je najpotrebnija kako bi stvorila održiv trend političke i ekonomske transformacije.

To može biti težak i dugoročan zadatak, ali nije nemoguć. Lekcije naučene iz ranijih proširenja mogu ukazati na greške, previde kao i dobre odluke. Važno je zabilježiti da EU djeluje u drukčijem okruženju proširenja. Ako je do 2007. EU bila jedina moguća opcija to sada više nije.Zemlje koje čekaju u redu postaju sve euroskeptičnije i gube vjeru u značenje evropske integracije.

Kosovo – too dependent on the public sector

The Kosovo economy suffers great uncertainty with the highest risks stemming from the country’s dependency on external and public sectors, weak investment climate and bad condition of human capital. Kosovo also suffers a lack of credible medium-term budget planning, which in previous analyses was pointed out as a large problem in most Western Balkan countries, but this year the situation is quite diverse. Kosovo remains the most severe case in this indicator. It is the only country where non-performing loans are claimed contained. At the same time, the level of enforcement of contracts is very low. Interest rates on loans are too high reflecting the high credit risk associated with widespread informality of the corporate sector and the law environment.

Recommendations to Kosovo are 10. Apart from the regular ones on fiscal discipline and business environment improvement, the country-specific recommendations are focused on improving the budgeting process, solving the high bank-financing cost problem, the lack of control on large infrastructure projects, fighting corruption, improvements in public procurement. Kosovo’s economic growth this year is expected to reach 4.1%. On the other hand, the country has the highest unemployment rate in the region – 28.7% for 2015 with 29.0% last year. Kosovo has the lowest public debt to GDP ratio – 12.4% at the moment, although debt is expected to grow despite the budget deficit being within the limits of the Stability and Growth Pact. This year’s budget gap is expected to be -2.1% of GDP.

The idea of introducing the European Semester to the Western Balkan countries is wonderful and has potential for great results. It should, however, go in parallel with a political dialogue with many of those countries having, practically, authoritarian regimes, hindering the realisation of many of the structural reforms expected. High unemployment in the region is also a huge problem to the EU, creating the still large number of economic refugees that create stronger opposition in many of the member states. It is commendable that more member states are starting to pay attention to the countries in the region after a long time of looking the other way. What is important now is that this attention is correctly channelled to where it is most needed so it creates a sustainable trend of political and economic transformation.

A difficult and long-term task it may be, but not impossible. Lessons learned from previous enlargements can point out well enough mistakes, oversights as well as good decisions. It is important to note that the EU is operating in a different enlargement environment. If up to 2007 the EU was the only possible option it is not anymore. The countries queueing in line are becoming more eurosceptic and losing faith in the significance of European integration.

Crna Gora – pregovori, ali ne i reforme

Od svih zemalja u regionu Crna Gora je najnaprednija u procesu evropske integracije pošto je posljednje tri godine pregovarala o ulasku.

Ipak, još joj nedostaje funkcionalna tržišna ekonomija, i dalje ima problema sa adekvatnim budžetskim planiranjem (kao većina zemalja u regionu u različitom omjeru) i zaostaje u planiranim reformama. Državi je dato osam preporuka.Prva, da se pridržava svog opredjeljenja za fiskalnu disciplinu pokazujući rezultate implementacije novog fiskalnog okvira i reviziju strategije vraćanja duga.Takođe se preporučuje uvođenje dodatnih barijera za ranije penzionisanje i moguću implementaciju obaveznog ličnog učešća u penzionim fondovima.

Kao sve zemlje u regionu i Crna Gora ima ozbiljnih problema sa nenaplativim pozjamicama i jedna od osam preporuka odnosi se na ovo pitanje. Savjetuje se i amandman za zakon o radu kao i veća fleksibilnost tržišta i stvarna bitka sa sivom ekonomijom. Među nekim od drugih preporuka su reforma obrazovnog sistema, usaglašavanje transportne strategije sa programom regionalne povezanosti, poboljšanje poslovnog okruženja i implementacija evropske sigurnosti za hranu i standard fitoterapije da bi zemlja dobila pristup na evropsko tržište.

Makroekonomski podaci za male balkanske zemlje pokazuju dinamičan rast, visoku stopu nezaposlenosti i rast duga.Predviđanje za rast BDP-a u Crnoj Gori ove godine je 3.5 % i 3.8 % sljedeće godine. Pad stope nezaposlenosti očekuje se do 18.2 % ove godine u odnosu na 19.4 % prošle godine. Predviđanja EK za 2016.je dalji pad do 17.6 %. Crna Gora ima najviši tekući deficit od svih zemalja u regionu -13.3 % za 2015. A samo je Albanija blizu toj brojci

(-11.9 5). Crna Gora je takođe među zemljama sa najvećim javnim dugom od 63.2 % kako procjenjuje EK za 2015, sa očekivanim rastom do 67.0 % sljedeće godine i rastućim trendom. Crna Gora je prva u regionu po ukupnom rashodu u odnosu na BDP – 48.2 %. Srbija je bila prva do prošle godine, ali sada taj omjer opada.

Montenegro – negotiating, but not reforming

Of all countries in the region it is Montenegro that is the most advanced in the process of European integration having been negotiating for accession for the past three years.

Nevertheless, it still lacks a functioning market economy, continues to have problems with adequate budget planning (as do most countries in the region to various degrees), and is drawing back on planned reforms. Eight recommendations have been made to the state. First one is to adhere to its commitment to fiscal discipline by showing results from the implementation of the new fiscal framework and revise its debt management strategy. The introduction of additional barriers to early retirement and possible implementation of mandatory personal participation in pension funds is also recommended.

Like all region countries Montenegro has serious problems with non-performing loans and one of the eight recommendations is to address this issue. Amendment to labour law is also advised as well as higher market flexibility and real battle with the grey economy is started. Some of the other recommendations are educational system reform, synchronising the transport strategy with the regional connection program, improvement of the business environment and implementation of European food safety and phytosanitary standards to give the country access to the European market.

Macroeconomic data for the small Balkan state shows dynamic growth, high unemployment and rising debt. Forecast for Montenegro GDP growth this year is 3.5% and 3.8% for next year. Drop in unemployment rate to 18.2% is expected this year from 19.4% last year. The EC forecast for 2016 is for a continuing decline to 17.6%. Montenegro has the highest current account deficit of all countries in the region -13.3% for 2015 with only Albania being close to these numbers (-11.9%). Montenegro is also among the countries with highest public debt with a 63.2% estimate for 2015 by the EC, expected rise to 67.0% next year and a growing trend. Montenegro is first in the region in the Total Expenditure to GDP ratio – 48.2%. Serbia was leader until last year, but the ratio there is dropping.