BiH2.0 PERCEPCIJE PERCEPTIONS
EU razvoji
EU developments
Svakodnevni izazovi u susjedstvu spram buđenja iz zimskog sna na Zapadnom Balkanu
Prvi mjeseci rada nove Komisije potvrdili su zabrinutost da se fokus EU pomjerio sa politike proširenja ka dubljem angažovanju sa evropskim susjedima. Ne samo da su se pregovori o pristupanju pomiješali sa ENP (Evropska politika susjedstva) u istoj Generalnoj direkciji (DG), NEAR, nego se i fokus pažnje jasno pomjerio ka istoku i jugu Unije. Žestoka kriza u Ukrajini i sadašnji nemiri u nekoliko zemalja iz južnog susjedstva traže od EU da preispita svoje angažovanje u zemaljama kojima nije voljna dati perspektivu pristupa. Komesar Hahn je u martu 2015. započeo široke konsultacije u pogledu oživljavanja politike susjedstva, posljednji put sagledanu 2011 nakon ‘arapskog proljeća’. To je imalo za posljedicu da se strateški napori usmjere na region susjedstva radije nego na jačanje procesa pristupanja. Kao rezultat, osiguranje sigurnosti na njegovim granicama postalo je jasan prioritet za EU a ne traženje demokratizacije kandidata za pristup.
Za zemlje Zapadnog Balkana koje su izgleda dostigle dovoljan nivo stabilnosti da ne bi uzrokovale trenutnu zabrinutost EU, ali koje nisu dovoljno uznapredovale da bi mogle pristupiti barem u prvoj polovini dekade 2020, paket proširenja Komisije iz oktobra 2014. nudi neke pozitivne poruke ali ne uspijeva da stvori utisak da se region ‘kreće’. Izvještaji o napretku pojedinih zemalja su dugi i sveobuhvatni ali im nedostaje jasnoća prema postignutom napretku (izvjestan napredak, osrednji napredak, ograničen napredak) i fokus. Strateški papir govori o ‘zastoju’ u Bosni i Hercegovini (BiH), ‘nazadovanju’ u Makedoniji i potrebi da se preostalim zemljama daju reformska obećanja prije nego što se učine dalji koraci. Dok papir ponavlja opće opredjeljenje EU prema članstvu Zapadnog Balkana u EU, naglasak stoji na potrebi da se osigura kredibilitet proširenja, shvaćen kao rigorozna aplikacija za uvjetovanost u članstvo i insistiranje na pristupu ‘prvo ono bitno’. Dosta je zapreka na dimenziji novoosnovane ekonomske vlade u ovogodišnjoj strategiji Komisije za proširenje, što nalazi inspiraciju u politici EU – kao Evropski semester i Strategija Evrope 2020 - u nastojanju da pomogne slomljenoj ekonomiji Balkana da stane na zdrave noge i spriječi nestabilnost. Ironija je da se sada Balkan ‘takmiči’ sa EU u ekonomskim problemima, uključujući visoku stopu nezaposlenosti (mladih), budžetski deficit ili smanjeni rast i konkurentnost. Ako nas je evropsko iskustvo ičemu naučilo, to je da će za zemlje Balkana trebati podsticaj ako preporuke – bez obzira koliko ispravne – treba implementirati kao odgovor na krizu.Daily challenging neighbourhood vs. ground-hog day in the Western Balkans
The new Commission’s first months in office have confirmed the concern that the EU’s focus has shifted from enlargement policy towards deeper engagement with Europe’s neighbours. Not only were accession negotiations conflated with the ENP in the same Directorate General (DG), NEAR, but the focus of attention clearly shifted towards the Union’s East and South. The violent crisis in Ukraine and the ongoing unrest in several countries of the southern neighbourhood are forcing the EU to reconsider its engagement with countries it is not willing to grant an accession perspective to. Commissioner Hahn’s DG in March 2015 launched a broad consultation in view of reinvigorating the neighbourhood policy, last reviewed in 2011 following the ‘Arab Spring’. In consequence, strategic efforts are focused on the neighbourhood region rather than on energising the accession process. As a result, ensuring stability at its borders has become a clear priority for the EU over pursuing the democratisation of the accession candidates.
With the Western Balkan countries appearing to have reached a sufficient level of stability so as not to cause any immediate concern to the EU, but not having progressed enough as to be able to accede before at least the first half of the 2020 decade, the Commission’s October 2014 enlargement package does convey some positive messages but fails to create an impression of the region “on the move”. Reports on individual countries’ progress are lengthy and all-encompassing but lack clarity regarding the progress made (some progress, moderate progress, limited progress) and focus. The strategy paper speaks of a ‘standstill’ in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), ‘backsliding’ in Macedonia and the need for the remaining countries to deliver on reform promises before any further steps can be taken. While the paper reiterates the EU’s general commitment to Western Balkans’ EU membership, the emphasis lies on the need to ensure the credibility of enlargement, understood as a rigorous application of member-ship conditionality and an insistence on the ‘fundamentals first’ approach. A lot hinges on the new-found economic governance dimension of this year’s Commission enlargement strategy, which draws inspiration from EU policies – like the European Semester and Europe 2020 strategy – in order to help the broken Balkan economies get on healthy footing and avert instability. The irony is that the Balkans is now ‘competing’ with the EU in economic problems, including high (youth) unemployment, budget deficits or reduced growth and competitiveness. If the European experience has taught us any-thing, it is that the Balkan countries will need incentives if recommendations – no matter how sound – are to be implemented in response to the crisis.
Zemlje članice kao
nosioci procesa
Iako izgleda da je proširenje otišlo u zadnji plan i politika susjedstva zauzela centralno mjesto u novoj Komisiji, pojedine zemlje članice EU su učinile korak naprijed da podrže evropsku perspektivu balkanskih zemalja. Kancelarka Angela Merkel je u avgustu prošle godine sazvala konferenciju na visokom nivou da bi razuvjerila skeptike da region još ima izgleda da se pridruži Uniji. Samo nekoliko mjeseci kasnije, u novembru 2014, njemački i britanski ministri vanjskih poslova Frank-Walter Steinmeier i Philip Hammond najavili su zajedničku inicijativu kako bi izvukli Bosnu i Hercegovinu iz dugog ćorsokaka i vratili na put EU. I Berlinski proces će se nastaviti ove godine sa sličnim događajem koji u avgustu planira austrijska vlada u Beču.
Takvi postupci govore da su važne zemlje članice voljne da preuzmu više odgovornosti o dosijeu proširenja u vrijeme oštre krize unutar Unije, kad su zagovornici za proširenje EU rijetka ptica u evropskim institucijama pod snažnom vatrom zbog njihovih postupaka. Važno je političko pozorište. U ovom smislu više uključenja u Balkan od strane EU metropola moglo bi pomoći da se proširi baza podrške među drugim zemljama članicama i poveća legitimnost politike proširenja. To će biti centralno za proširenje broja individualnih zemalja članica da učestvuju u ovom angažovanju sa Zapadnim Balkanom.
Međutim, do koje će mjere uspjeti da naprave razliku za zemlje Balkana koje se nadaju EU ostaje otvoreno pitanje. Da bi se postiglo nešto više od sistema životne podrške za proširenje Balkana, te inicijative treba da dopune rad Komisije i ponude iskrena rješenja za velike izazove u regionu. Ponovljeni principi – kao demokratija i regionalna saradnja – i ponovo utvrđivanje regionalnih problema – uključujući slabu vlast, ekonomsko predviđanje i neriješeno stanje u državi – neće stati na novo tlo. Evropska Komisija već nadgleda situaciju u tim zemljama, ali uključujući i godišnji Izvještaj o napretku, i dupliranje napora u procjeni i pomoći u progresu na Balkanu je kontraproduktivno.Member States as champions of the process
While enlargement seems to have taken the backbench and neighbourhood policy the centre stage in the new Commission, individual EU member states have stepped forward to endorse the European perspective of the Balkan countries. Chancellor Angela Merkel convened a high-level conference in Berlin in August last year to reassure any sceptics that the region still has a clear prospect of joining the Union. Only a few months later, in November 2014, the German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and the British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond announced a joint initiative aimed at getting Bosnia and Herzegovina out of its prolonged impasse and onto the EU track. And, the Berlin Process will continue this year with a similar event planned in August by the Austrian government in Vienna.
Such gestures would suggest that important member states are willing to assume more responsibility on the enlargement dossier at a time of severe crises inside the Union, when advocates for EU widening are a rare breed and the European institutions are under intense fire for their performance. The political theatre does matter. In this sense, more involvement with the Balkans on behalf of EU capitals could help to broaden the fan base among other member states and increase the legitimacy of enlargement policy. It will be central to broaden the number of individual member states to participate in this engagement with the Western Balkans.
However, the extent to which they will succeed in making a difference for the EU-hopeful countries of the Balkans remains an open question. In order to amount to anything more than a life-support sys-tem for Balkan enlargement, these initiatives need to complement the work of the Commission and offer genuine solutions to outstanding challenges in the region. Reiterating principles – like democracy and regional cooperation – and re-stating regional problems – including poor governance, economic predicament and unresolved statehood – will not break new ground. The European Commission is already monitoring the situation in these countries, including in its annual Progress Reports, and a duplication of efforts in assessing and assisting with progress in the Balkans is counterproductive.