Bosna i Hercegovina nastavlja s pregovorima o pristupu u EU, što će pomoći njenoj reformskoj agendi i smanjenju korupcije. Međutim, njene institucije su u zastoju, što opravdava srednje visok stepen rizika. I pored razmjerno niskog duga, vlada se suočava sa izazovima da poveća kapital ili iskoristi pomoć koju dobija da bi produbila svoj lanac snabdijevanja. Čak iako postoje sektaške podjele, rizik od političkog nasilja se smanjuje. Vlada je slaba i nesposobna da odgovori na udare, dok je poslovno okruženje i dalje restriktivno, što je odraz visokog, iako umjerenijeg, strepena umiješanosti vlade i slabih imovinskih prava; infrastruktura je posebno slaba.

• Spoj etničkih podjela i složene strukture upravljanja čine nefunkcionalnim politički sistem u Bosni i Hercegovini. Uz rijetke znake skorašnjeg radikalnog poboljšanja nakon prošlogodišnjih izbora očekujemo da se zemlja u narednim godinama izvuče iz frustrirajućih odlaganja uveliko potrebnih reformi.

• Ekonomija se pokazala dosta otpornom na katastrofalne poplave koje su pogodile zemlju u ljeto 2014. jer pad rasta i javne finansije nisu tako veliki koliko se u početku mislilo.

• Budžetska politika će se i dalje voditi prema vladinom stand-by aranžmanu sa MMF-om – nadamo se da će se produžiti i poslije juna 2015 – iako će izvršenje budžeta i dalje biti na udaru političkih rasprava.

• Politička neizvjesnost i rizik i dalje postoje zbog čestih političkih rasprava koje dovode do ometanja političkog odlučivanja i štete položaju Bosne u svijetu.

• Oštar pad kod ključnih trgovinskih partnera Bosne – posebno Srbije, Hrvatske i Rusije –mogao bi imati efekta na zahtjev za izvoz dok suprotni vjetrovi u ekonomiji eurozone i dalje predstavljaju prijetnju za rast.

• Osim političkog rizika ekonomski oporavak se suočava sa temeljnim prijetnjama od rasta NPL (nekvalitetnog kredita) koji iznosi 16.1% u K3-14 i prijetnjom od dugoročnog odljeva mozgova zbog hronične nezaposlenosti.

Za više informacija posjetite:
http://www.aon.com/unitedkingdom/default.js
http://www.fastmr.com

Bosnia Herzegovina continues its EU accession negotiations, which will help its reform agenda and reduce corruption. However its institutions are deadlocked, which justifies its medium high risk rating. Despite having a low debt ratio, the government faces challenges to raise capital or use the aid it receives to deepen its supply chains. Even though sectarian divides remain, political violence risk has been falling. The government is weak and unable to respond to shocks, while the business environment remains restrictive, reflective of high, if moderating, levels of government interference and weak property rights; infrastructure is particularly weak.

• Partisan manoeuvring ethnic divisions and complex governing structures combine to make Bosnia-Herzegovina's political system largely dysfunctional. With few signs that radical improvements are forthcoming in even after last year's elections we expect the country to muddle through in the coming years with frustrating delays to badly-needed reforms.

• The economy has shown considerable resistance to the catastrophic floods that hit the country in summer 2014 with the downturn in growth and public finances not as severe as initially thought.

• Budget policy will continue to be guided by the government's Stand-By Agreement with the IMF - which we expect to be extended beyond June 2015 - though budget execution will still be affected by political disputes.

• Political uncertainty and risk remain elevated with frequent political disputes liable to disrupt policy making and damage Bosnia's international standing.

• A sharp downturn in Bosnia's key trading partners - especially Serbia Croatia and Russia - could impact on demand for exports while headwinds in the Eurozone economy continue to pose a downside threat to growth.

• Aside from political risks the economic recovery faces underlying threats from a rising NPL (Nonperforming Loan) ratio which hit 16.1% in Q3-14 and the threat of a long-term brain drain from chronic unemployment.

For more information please visit:
http://www.aon.com/unitedkingdom/default.jsp
http://www.fastmr.com

MAPIRANJE RIZIKA

MAPPING RISK

KREDITNI REJTING BiH

BiH CREDIT RATING

Dana 13. marta 2015. agencija za ocjenu kreditnog rejtinga Standard & Poor's potvrdila je Bosni i Hercegovini suvereni kreditni rejting
„B sa stabilnim izgledima".

On March 13, 2015, rating agency Standard & Poor's has affirmed sovereign credit rating on Bosnia and Herzegovina at
“B with stable outlook".

Aktuelni rejting BiH

Kao rezultat svojih analiza 13. marta 2015. agencija za ocjenu kreditnog rejtinga Standard & Poor's potvrdila je Bosni i Hercegovini suvereni kreditni rejting „B sa stabilnim izgledima". U julu 2012. agencija Moody's Investors Service potvrdila je Bosni i Hercegovini suvereni kreditni rejting „B3" i izmijenila izglede „sa posmatranja - negativno na stabilne izglede".

Current BiH credit rating

Based on their analysis, on March 13, 2015, rating agency Standard & Poor's has affirmed sovereign credit rating on Bosnia and Herzegovina at „B with stable outlook". On July 2012 Moody's Investors Service has affirmed sovereign credit rating on Bosnia and Herzegovina at „B3" and removed the ratings from Credit Watch with negative implications to outlook stable.

Uporedni pregled rejtinga

Agencije Moody's Investors Service i Standard & Poor's koriste različite oznake za rejting.

Agencije dijele sve oznake rejtinga u nekoliko kategorija prema kriterijima kreditne sposobnosti i kreditnog rizika a koje se označavaju slovima od A do C, odnosno D. U okviru svake kategorije postoje nivoi rejtinga u zavisnosti od toga kako je procijenjena pozicija države, kao jaka, prosječna ili slaba. Pri tome, agencija Moody's Investors Service za označavanje tih nivoa koristi numeričke oznake, a Standard & Poor's oznaku plus (+) ili minus (-).

Agencije daju mišljenje za izglede ili očekivanja (engl. outlook) u vidu opisne ocjene u kom smjeru bi se rejting mogao kretati u budućnosti. Izgledi mogu biti pozitivni, stabilni, negativni i promjenjivi u zavisnosti od razvoja događaja. Značenje navedenih opisnih izgleda je sljedeće: pozitivan - rejting može biti povećan, stabilan - rejting se vjerovatno neće mijenjati, negativan - rejting može biti smanjen, a promjenjiv izgled u zavisnosti od razvoja događaja - može doći do povećanja, smanjenja ili potvrde dodijeljenog rejtinga.

Comparative review of credit ratings

Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's use different rating grading.

Credit ratings issued by both agencies distinguish between several categories relevant to credit rating and credit risk criteria graded using letters A through C, or D to that effect. Each credit rating category includes rating grades depending on the actual appraisal of the country's position, whether it is strong, average or rather poor. In so doing, to rate these specific grades the Moody's Investors Service uses numeric grades, while the Standard & Poor's uses plus (+) or minus (-) grades.

Both credit rating agencies provide outlooks in terms of trends that specific rating might report in future. Outlook is rated by using a descriptive rate, including positive, stabile, negative and developing outlook. Positive outlook means that a credit rating could be upgraded, stable means that a rating probably would not be changed, negative outlook means that a rating could be downgraded and developing outlook (contingent upon an event) means that a rating could be upgraded, downgraded or affirmed.

Istorija rejtinga BiH

Agencija Moody's Investors Service angažovana je 2003. godine, tako da 2004. godine Bosna i Hercegovina dobija svoj prvi suvereni kreditni rejting. Agencija Standard & Poors angažovana je 2008. godine, kada je i dodijelila rejting BiH. Obje agencije redovno prate stanje u Bosni i Hercegovini i najmanje jednom godišnje dolaze u misiju kako bi u direktnim razgovorima sa zvaničnicima i predstavnicima institucija BiH i entiteta u BiH i predstavnicima međunarodne zajednice, privrednog i akademskog života dobili sveobuhvatnu sliku o stanju i perspektivama naše zemlje. Istorija rejtinga Bosne i Hercegovine predstavlja pregled rejtinga od prvog dodijeljenog do danas. Agencije Moody's Investors Service i Standard & Poors na osnovu svojih analiza i procjena objavljuju izvještaje o Bosni i Hercegovini. [izvor: CBBiH.ba]

BiH sovereign credit rating history

Moody's Investors Service was hired to asses the credit rating in 2003 and in 2004 Bosnia and Herzegovina received its first sovereign credit rating. Standard & Poor's was hired in 2008 and also issued the BH sovereign credit rating for that year. Both agencies have regularly monitored the Bosnia and Herzegovina's status. They in fact travel to BH at least once a year for a mission to directly talk to BH state and entity officials, representatives of BH institutions, representatives of international community in BH, businesspersons and academics with the view to get a comprehensive picture of the actual condition and outlooks of our country. Bosnia and Herzegovina's sovereign credit rating history represents a review of all the ratings issued thus far. Based on their analysis and appraisals, both Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's publish reports on Bosnia and Herzegovina. [source: CBBiH.ba]