BiH2.0 PERCEPCIJE PERCEPTIONS

SESIJA #3

Jačanje ekonomskog
razvoja

Ekonomske ocjene situacije u BiH jasno su pokazale da je iz makro-ekonomske perspektive bosanska ekonomija sasvim otporna uprkos nedavnim potresima kao što su poplave 2014.I to, prije svega, zahvaljujući niskom fiskalnom deficitu i kontrolisanom vanjskom dugu.Bosna je u vrhu zemalja s vanjskim prihodom koji u zemlju dolazi iz dijaspore.Očekuje se da 2015.bosanska ekonomija ima rast oko 2,5%. Ali kako je BiH konvertibilna marka vezana za euro, naglašeno je da je cijela ekonomija osjetljiva na razvoje u Evropi. Iako niska, bosanska proizvodnja je ocijenjena kao raznovrsna, fokusirajući se na drvnu građu, namještaj, obuću, metalurgiju, neorganske hemikalije i tekstil. Iako nedovoljno razvijena ima ekonomski potencijal u novim poljima kao što su energija, drvna industrija, vodoprivreda, poljoprivreda i turizam.

Kako je jasno naglašeno u Sporazumu za rast i zapošljavanje, bosanskoj ekonomiji (mješavina tranzicije i poslijeratne ekonomije) potrebna je mapa puta za reforme da bi bila održiva i konkurentna. Glavni identifikovani problemi vide se u njenoj prirodi potrošnje, velikom javnom sektoru, niskom ulaganju i niskoj stopi zaposlenosti, što umanjuje njene proizvodne mogućnosti. Ovo nije održiv model. Bosna proizvodi 40% svog BDP putem poreza i 49% svog BDP ide na javnu potrošnju. Većina skromnog izvoza (31% BDP) upućuje se u Njemačku, Hrvatsku, Italiju, Srbiju, Sloveniju i Austriju.Ovo ne odražava njenu geografsku prednost zbog blizine ogromnom tržištu EU i drugim potencijalnim tržištima kao što su Turska i Kina.

Iz evropske perspektive BiH nije konkurentno tržište. Jedna od glavnih prepreka za veće ulaganje i proizvodnju je glomazan i koruptivan poslovni sektor. BiH se nalazi na 105. mjestu u Indeksu međugranične trgovine (dio pokazatelja Doing Business), zbog složenih administrativnih procedura za trgovinu i niskog nivoa infrastrukture. Sektor su zauzele nekoliko firmi koje su usko povezane sa političkim strankama. Ali čak i bez političke volje neke oblasti mogu se reformisati putem institucionalnih mjera kao što su usmjeravanje izdavanja građevinskih dozvola (182. mjesto po građevinskim dozvolama od 189 zemalja) ili kontrolisanju parafiskalnih obaveza.

Primarni budžetski tereti identifikovani su kao prekomjerna vlada i složene birokratske procedure, penzije (koje se daju starijoj populaciji BiH) i socijalne nadoknade koje se odnose na rat. Bosna ima preko 147 ministarstava i obiman civilni sektor, što oduzima većinu finansijskih resursa države. Iako 4.6% BDP-a ide na socijalno osiguranje (uporedivo sa prosjekom EU), neproporcionalna količina ovog (75%) troši se na populaciju starih, ostavljajući malo fondova za najugroženije . Štaviše, penzije veterana nisu jednako raspoređene; najviši bivši oficiri dobijaju najveće penzije, dok bivši vojnici ne primaju čak ni goli minimum. Trebalo bi uspostaviti Registar sa spiskom svih bivših boraca da bi se stvorio pravedniji sistem raspodjele. Sistem socijalnog osiguranja traži hitnu i dugoročnu reformu. Mala količina javne potrošnje na zdravstvo takođe je dovela do teškog stanja slabo finansiranog i nekvalitetnog bosanskog zdravstvenog sistema. Izuzimanje zdravstvenog osiguranja iz troškova socijalnog osiguranja naglašeno je kao potencijalni put ka izlječenju ovog problema.

Opširno se govorilo i o stopi zaposlenosti i inertnosti bosanskih građana. Kako je stopa zaposlenosti veoma niska – 4% - u poređenju sa evropskim prosjekom od 68%, i pošto nema socijalne mreže sigurnosti, ljudi su razumljivo nespremni da izgube posao. Jedan od prisutnih ekonomista je ocijenio da BiH mora da stvori dodatnih 80,000 radnih mjesta za godinu da bi do 2020. dostigla evropski prosjek zaposlenosti. Po nekim statistikama, 63% mladih iznad 15 su nezaposleni.Samostalno poduzetništvo je u opadanju, pošto ima svoj dio ljudi koji rade u poljoprivredi, dok raste broj mjesta s punim radnim vremenom i poslovi u službama. Pošto u BiH nema dovoljno radnih mjesta, jedan analitičar je primijetio da je to dovelo do stvaranja sistema zvanog štela, obično direktno povezanog sa odanošću političkoj partiji. Sindikati su sasvim slabi, što je još jedan razlog za bojazan bosanskih građana da će izgubiti radno mjesto. I zato oni glasaju za stranke koje im nude bolje izglede za posao, radije nego da slobodno izaberu političare koje više simpatišu. Takođe nisu voljni da protestuju iz straha da će biti otpušteni kao problematični.

Obrazovanje je identifikovano kao oblast koja ima direktne posljedice na tržište zapošljavanja. Najveća proporcija ljudi koji su nezaposleni su oni sa srednjim obrazovanjem; najniža su ljudi sa univerzitetskom diplomom. Samo 30% bosanskie omladine ide u srednje škole (gimnazije) koje će ih pripremiti za univerzitetsko obrazovanje, dok 70% pohađa srednje stručne škole. Štaviše, kako je jedan učesnik sa velikim iskustvom u obrazovnom sektoru primijetio, nastavne metode i program su zastarjeli; nastavnici često ne znaju dobro svoje predmete; a veoma je niska i IT pismenost. Obrazovni sektor ne uspijeva da obuči mlade da bi bili konkurentni na tržištu radne snage. Isto tako, malo je programa obuke i prekvalifikacije za odrasle da bi im se omogućilo da pređu s jednog na drugi posao. Dakle, ekonomska dijagnoza kaže da Bosanci treba da rade efikasnije i steknu veće vještine da bi bili zaposleni i produktivni. Zdravija ekonomija takođe će pomoći da se smanji sadašnji odliv mladih Bosanaca koji traže posao van zemlje.

Jasna slika izašla je iz slabosti ekonomije BiH. Ključni zahtjevi su stvaranje radnih mjesta, viši nivoi izvoza i ulaganja i paralelno s tim reduciranje obima javnog sektora i smanjenje birokratskih prepreka za poslovanje.

SESSION #3

Strengthening economic development

Economic assessments of the BiH situation have clearly shown that from a macro-economic perspective, the Bosnian economy has been quite resilient despite some recent shocks such as the 2014 floods. This is primarily due to a low fiscal deficit and controlled external debt. Bosnia tops world rankings in external remittances sent to the country from the Diaspora. The Bosnian economy is expected to grow at around 2.5% in 2015. But as the BiH convertible mark is tied to the Euro, it was stressed that the entire economy is sensitive to European developments. Although low, Bosnian production was assessed as quite diversified, focusing on timber, furniture, footwear, metallurgy, inorganic chemicals, and textiles. Although underdeveloped it has an economic potential in new fields such as energy, wood industry, water industry, agribusiness, and tourism.

As specified in the Compact for Growth and Jobs, the Bosnian economy (a mixture of a transition and a post-war economy) needs a roadmap of reforms to make it sustainable and competitive. The main identified problems were found in its consumption-driven nature, the large public sector, low investment, and the low employment rate, which reduce its production capabilities. This is not a sustainable model. Bosnia generates 40% of its GDP through tax collection and 49% of its GDP goes to public spending. Most of its modest exports (31% of GDP) are directed at Germany, Croatia, Italy, Serbia, Slovenia and Austria. This does not reflect its geographical advantage of proximity to the huge EU market and other potential markets such as Turkey and China.

From a European perspective, BiH does not have a competitive market. One of the main obstacles to increased investment and production is the cumbersome and corrupt business sector. BiH ranks 105th on the Trading across Borders index (part of the Doing Business indicator), because of the complex administrative procedures for trading and the poor level of infrastructure. The sector has been captured by a few firms, which have been closely linked to political parties. But even without political will, certain areas could be reformed via institutional measures such as streamlining the issuance of construction permits (182nd place in construction permits out of 189 countries) or controlling parafiscal charges.

The primary budgetary burdens were identified as the oversized government and complex bureaucratic procedures, pensions (given BiH’s aging population), and war-related social allowances. Bosnia has over 147 ministries and a heavy civil sector, which takes up most of the state’s financial resources. Although 4.6% of the GDP goes to social security (comparable to the EU average), a disproportionate amount of this (75%) is spent on the veteran population, leaving few funds for the most vulnerable . Furthermore, veteran pensions are not evenly distributed; the top ex-officers get the highest pensions, whilst ex-soldiers often do not even receive the bare minimum. A registry with records of all former combatants should be set up to create a fairer distributive system. The social insurance system is in need of urgent and far-reaching reform. The small amount of public spending on healthcare has also led to the dire state of the under-financed and low-quality Bosnian health system. Taking health insurance out of the social security spending was put forward as a potential pathway to remedy this problem.

Employment and inactivity rates of Bosnian citizens were discussed at some length. Since the employment rate is very low at 40%, compared to the European average of 68%, and since there is no social safety net, people are understandably reluctant to lose their jobs. It was estimated by one of the economists present that BiH would have to create an additional 80,000 jobs per annum to reach the European employment average by 2020. By some statistics 63% of youth over the age of 15 are unemployed. Self-employment has been decreasing, as has the share of people working in agriculture, whilst full-time posts and jobs in services have been increasing. Since jobs in BiH are scarce, one analyst noted that this has led to the creation of a highly clientelistic job provision system (called štela), usually directly tied in with political party allegiances. The trade unions are quite weak, which is another reason why Bosnian citizens are concerned about losing their jobs. And that is why they vote for parties which offer them better job prospects, rather than freely choosing their political preferences. They are also reluctant to protest out of fear of being laid off as trouble-makers.

Education was identified as an area which had direct consequences for the job market. The highest proportion of people who are unemployed are those with secondary vocational education; the lowest are people with university degrees. Only 30% of Bosnian youth go to grammar schools (gymnasiums), which would prepare them for university education, while 70% go to vocational schools. Moreover, as one participant with ample experience in the educational sector noted, the teaching curricula and methods are out of date; teachers often do not know their subjects very well; and IT literacy is quite low. The education sector is failing to train youth to be competitive in the job market. Similarly, there are few training and requalification programmes for adults to enable them to move from one job to another. Overall, the economic diagnosis suggests that Bosnians should work more effectively and acquire more skills to be more employable and productive. A more healthy economy would also help counter the current brain drain of young Bosnians seeking work abroad.

A clear picture emerged of the weaknesses of the BiH economy. The key requirements are job creation, higher levels of exports and investment, and in parallel a reduction of the size of the public sector and a lessening of bureaucratic hurdles for business.
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