Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon:

Govor o Bosni

SEESOX ručak - “Novo međunarodno promišljanje”

Hvala vam što ste me danas pozvali

Oprostite mi ako, u onom što kažem, budem dosta otvoren. Ali sam sve više zabrinut zbog Bosne i Hercegovine a u teškim vremenima treba biti iskren.

Pročitao sam zaključke sa SEESOX konferencije.

Slažem se s nekim od njih, ali bojim se ne sa svima.

Naziv vašeg seminara je “Novo međunarodno promišljanje”

Ali u Bosni se ne traži novo promišljanje nego nova volja i obnovljena odluka da se insistira na reformi u zemlji, umjesto zadovoljstva sa zastojem – ili nečim što je tome veoma blizu.

Nisu ideje nedostajale međunarodnoj zajednici ovih posljednjih 10 godina, otkako je Bosna počela da nazaduje. To je politička volja, koordinacija i sposobnost da se zajednički i efikasno koriste poluge koje imamo.

Kad sam radio u OHR-u imali smo poslovicu.

“Ako nisi spreman da ubiješ zmaja, ne možeš spasiti djevu.”

Zmaj u BiH predstavlja nefunkcionalnu državu – i one koji, 20 godina poslije Dejtona, i dalje koriste tu nefunkcionalnost da povedu zemlju ka podjeli.

Zbog nefunkcionalnosti Bosna je toliko opterećena mnogostrukim nivoima politike i političara da ne može naći novac kako bi obezbijedila svojim građanima ono što im treba.

Poslove;

Sigurno okruženje;

Vladavinu prava;

Pristojnu zdravstvenu zaštitu; i

Moderno obrazovanje.

I kako je obezbjeđenje tih stvari jedini način da se stvori privrženost državi, to što politika Bosne i oni privrženi ostaju u blatu etničke podjele i zavisnosti, ponekad je podržano opasnim apelima na vjerski antagonizam.

Zbog nefunkcionalnosti Bosna ne može osigurati jedinu budućnost koja će joj dati sigurnost i prosperitet – budućnost kao punopravna članica EU i NATO.

Pa zašto, onda, stalno bježimo od toga da se prihvatimo bosanskog zmaja nefunkcionalne države i umjesto toga tražimo sve više razrađenih načina da se zvijer odvrati sa manjim ponudama – kao ekonomska reforma – u nadi da neće primijetiti šta radimo?

Ovo ne znači da ekonomska reforma nije potrebna. Naravno da jeste.

Ali radije treba istaći da, iako je ekonomska reforma potrebna, to nije dovoljno – osim ako je dio toga – a ne zamjena - za funkcionalnu reformu. Ako toga nema svaka ekonomska reforma će neizbježno biti srušena – kao toliko puta u prošlosti – od strane onih kojima je u interesu da zadrže status quo jer na taj način čuvaju svoju moć i pune svoje džepove.

Čak i kad dođe do paketa ekonomskih reformi o čemu se sada diskutuje, Evropa je podijeljena. Na jednoj strani neke države svjesno žele da zatvore ekonomsku reformu u uslovljenost IMF-a. Druge bježe od ovog zbog mogućeg rizika većih nereda, socijalnog kolapsa i političkog pomjeranja – pretpostavljam na osnovu toga da je jedna Grčka više nego dovoljna.

Treba da nas podsjetim da poslije više od decenije stvarnog napretka prema državotvornosti i stabilnosti, Bosna je počela da nazaduje prije skoro 10 godina. I sada gazi sve većom brzinom prema raskidu ili sumnjivom statusu da bude najdublja i najupornija crna rupa u Evropi.

Treba da nas podsjetim da se ovo događa u zemlji u kojoj EU ima više instrumenata poluge nego i u jednoj drugoj na svijetu – opširan program pomoći; tešku misiju; program velike policijske reforme; EUFOR; značajnu snagu poluge na akcije susjednih zemalja; specijalnog predstavnika EU i pristup visokom predstavniku koji još uvijek ima dejtonske ovlasti.

To ne znači da mi nemamo polugu da zaustavimo nazadovanje Bosne. Mi nismo, ovih posljednjih deset godina, našli volju da to iskoristimo.

Treba da nas podsjetim i sljedeće, da uprkos snažnim saopštenjima poslije prošlogodišnjih izbora da će međunarodna zajednica ovaj put insistirati da stvari budu drukčije, one uopšte nisu drukčije.

I pet mjeseci nakon izbora vlada je i dalje nefunkcionalna i na federalnom i na državnom nivou.

U međuvremenu su nam otišla tri duga mučna mjeseca teškog pritiska da se napokon uspije u pregovorima za bosanski potpis na komadu papira.

Možda će to i uspjeti. Zaista se tako nadam.

Ali nemojte zadržati dah.

Istorija posljednjih deset godina posuta je komadima papira koji su nuđeni sa jednakom nadom i fanfarama, ali koji su završili u smeću zbog nedostatka međunarodne volje da učini da dobiju na značaju.

Treba da nas podsjetim da efekti zastoja koji su zgrabili Bosnu ove posljednje decenije nisu ograničeni samo na Bosnu.

Prošle subote u Beogradu održan je veliki skup u prisustvu patrijarha i srbijanskog predsjednika da proslave osnivanje ne Bosne nego Republike Srpske.

U Zagrebu predsjednik hrvatskog HDZ-a izrazio je podršku obnovljenim pozivima bosanskih Hrvata za treći entitet.

Na Bliskom istoku sada je 330 mladića iz Bosne u Siriji i Iraku pod parolom ISIS, i to iz zemlje sa manje od 4 miliona stanovnika, veličine Velsa.

I, naravno, Moskva nastavlja da igra ukrajinsku podvalu sa bosanskom nestabilnošću gdje god može.

Tokom 1990-ih svijet je morao da nauči bolnu i krvavu lekciju da ignorisanje nestabilnosti u Bosni može imati regionalne, čak globalne posljedice. Da li zaista moramo to da naučimo iznova, četvrt vijeka poslije?

Žao mi je što sam tako grub.

Ali bojim se da je tokom ovih posljednjih deset godina međunarodna zajednica u Bosni i Hercegovini bila zaključana u neku vrstu diplomatskog valcera iz Dana mrmota. Upadamo u isti stari ples zajedno, u pratnji istih starih riječi nade i odlučnosti, samo da bi se našli opet na istom starom mjestu, za koje onda izjavimo da je to nešto sasvim novo..

Mi stalno – i sada izgleda da ćemo iznova – zamjenjujemo ubijanje zmaja nefunkcionalnosti Bosne ponudama niza različitih reformi malih razmjera, u uzaludnoj nadi da, dok zvijer gleda u drugom pravcu, možemo uskočiti i spasiti djevu za njenu pravu sudbinu – brak u EU i NATO.

To se nije desilo. I neće se desiti.

Sada neki čak predlažu da, ustvari, to ne mora uopšte da se desi. Biće dovoljno dobro za nas da se samo pretvaramo da se dešava. Onda će nekim trikom Brisela, nereformisana Bosna tiho skliznuti u status kandidata.

To izgleda kao privlačna kratica. Iako znamo da kratice rijetko uspijevaju – kao što smo vidjeli sa drugim zemljama EU.

Ali to nije kratica. To je mit.

Jer iza toga nazirem spremnost nekih zemalja EU da proglase uspjeh pozdravljajući status Bosne kandidata. I onda je ostavljajući tamo – u limbu – zauvijek.

I dalje crna rupa nefunkcionalnosti i korupcije.

I dalje upropaštena podjelom i opstrukcijom.

I dalje izvor regruta za ISIS.

Ali sada napola sigurno stavljena u imaginarnu zemlju na rubu Evrope, gdje može napraviti minimum štete. Mjesto koje mi u međunarodnoj zajednici nikad ne možemo pokrenuti naprijed. I iz kog se nikad ne možemo izvući.

Reinhardt Priebe, izuzetni službenik Evropske unije koji je radio sa mnom kad sam bio visoki predstavnik, znao je reći da Evropa nije samo spoj ideala nego i spoj standarda.

Upravo tako!

A jedan od tih standarda svakako je funkcionalnost. Zar ne postoji minimalni standard funkcionalnosti koji se traži za članstvo u EU?

Naravno da postoji.

Pa zašto i dalje okolišamo oko tog pitanja u Bosni?

Zašto smo poslije tako izuzetnog napretka prema funkcionalnoj bosanskoj državi prvih deset godina poslije Dejtona napustili taj trud, ovih posljednjih deset godina?

Niko ne govori o centralizovanoj Bosni.

Niko ne govori ni o tome da se treba vratiti bonskim ovlastima da bi se stvari pokrenule – iako ih treba čuvati u slučaju da stvari krenu opasno unazad, jer neki destruktivni elementi traže da se radije podrži podjela nego jedinstvo.

Niko ne predlaže ni ukidanje entiteta.

Funkcionalna Bosna će izgledati i biti sličnija visoko decentralizovanoj Belgiji nego centralizovanoj Britaniji.

Ali mora biti funkcionalna – ne može stalno biti talac onih koji žele da propadne.

Ono što je sada traži od međunarodne zajednice – a posebno od Brisela – nije novo promišljanje nego prije nova hrabrost da se suoči sa separatistima i ometačima u Bosni i nova volja da se upotrijebi, na zajednički i koherentan način, ogromna poluga da se pokrenu naprijed stvari koje mi možemo mobilisati, i u zemlji i u regionu.

Ako sam želio da se stvari urade u moje vrijeme u Bosni, nisam se samo obraćao Briselu, nego i Zagrebu i Beogradu. Nikakva politika za Bosnu neće uspjeti ako se ne uklopi unutar cjelokupne politike za region.

Moje drugo ključno iskustvo u Bosni bilo je da ništa ne mogu postići ako međunarodna zajednica oklijeva, okreće glavu od rizika i ako je podijeljena.

Ali ako je ujedinjena i odlučna, ne postoji ništa što se ne može postići.

Prije deset godina, nakon decenije izuzetnog napretka u Bosni, međunarodna zajednica – posebno Brisel – podigli su nogu sa akceleratora i skrenuli pogled sa ceste.

Ono što nam je sada potrebno je promjena uređaja i pravca.

Ili možemo nastaviti dalje kao sada.

Nadajući se da ćemo odvratiti Bosnu od zadatka funkcionalne reforme, ali u stvarnosti odvraćajući sebe.

Nadajući se boljoj budućnosti, i pored suprotnog iskustva iz prošlosti.

Potapajući centralno pitanje funkcionalnosti jer smo dozvolili lokalnim igračima da nas zastraše i odvrate od toga.

I bacajući se u drugu deceniju u kojoj Bosna tone sve dublje i dublje u crnu rupu, dok mi u Evropi i međunarodna zajednica ostajemo sve dalje i dalje od misije na koju smo stavili ruku prije dvadeset godina.

Pomažući Bosni samo prema miru i napretku koji može da ima kao punopravna, funkcionalna i ponosna članica euroatlantskih briselskih institucija.

Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon:

Bosnia Speech

SEESOX Lunch - “New international thinking”

Thank you for inviting me today.

Forgive me if, in what I say, I am rather blunt. But I am getting increasingly concerned about Bosnia and Herzegovina and in troubled times it is as well to be straightforward.

I have read the Conclusions of the SEESOX Conference.

I agree with some of them. But not, I fear, all.

Title of your seminar is “New international thinking”.

But it is not new thinking that is required in Bosnia, but a new will and a renewed determination to insist on reform in the country, instead of being satisfied with stasis – or something very close to it.

It is not ideas that have failed the International Community these last 10 years, since Bosnia began to drift backwards. It is political will, coordination and ability to use the levers that we have in a united and effective fashion.

We used to have a saying in OHR when I worked there.

“Unless you are prepared to slay the dragon, you cannot save the maiden.”

The dragon in BiH is state dysfunctionality – and those who, 20 years after Dayton, still use that dysfunctionality to drive the country towards partition.

It is because of dysfunctionality that Bosnia is so burdened with multiple layers of politics and politicians that it cannot find the money to provide its citizens with what they need:

Jobs;

A secure environment;

The rule of law;

A decent health service; and

A modern education.

And it is because the provision of these things is the only way to create loyalty to the state, that Bosnia’s politics and loyalties remain mired in ethnic division and dependency, sometimes buttressed by dangerous appeals to religious antagonism.

It is because of dysfunctionality that Bosnia cannot secure the only future which will give it security and prosperity – a future as a full member of the EU and NATO.

So why, constantly and repeatedly, do we shy away from tackling the Bosnian dragon of state dysfunctionality and instead seek to find more and more elaborate ways of distracting the beast with smaller offerings – like economic reform – in the hope that it will fail to notice what we are doing?

This is not to say that economic reform is not necessary. Of course it is.

It is rather to assert that though economic reform is necessary it is not sufficient – unless it is part of – rather than substitute for – functional reform. Absent that, any economic reform will inevitably be subverted – as so often in the past – by those who have an interest in maintaining the status quo because that is how they preserve their power and line their pockets.

Yet even when it comes to the economic reform package currently under discussion, Europe is divided. On the one hand some nations sensibly want to enshrine economic reform IMF conditionality. Others shy away from this because of the perceived risk of increasing disorder, societal collapse and political upheaval – I suppose on the basis that one Greece at a time is more than enough.

I need to remind us that after more than a decade of real progress towards statehood and stability, Bosnia started to go backwards nearly 10 years ago. And now tracks with increasing speed towards either break up or the dubious status of being Europe’s deepest and most intractable black hole.

I need to remind us that this has occurred in country in which the EU has more instruments of leverage than in any other on earth – a huge aid programme, a heavyweight mission, a large police reform programme, EUFOR, substantial leverage over the actions of neighbouring states, a special EU representative and access to a High Representative still equipped with the Dayton powers.

It is not that we do not have the leverage to stop Bosnia moving backwards. It is that we have not, these last ten years, found the will to use it.

I need to remind us too that despite strong statements after last year’s elections that the International Community would this time insist that things would be different, they aren’t different at all.

There is still no functioning government at either the Federation or the state level, five months after the elections.

Meanwhile it has taken us three long tortuous months of heavyweight pressure to finally succeed in negotiating Bosnian signatures on a piece of paper.

Maybe it will work. I certainly hope so.

But don’t hold your breath.

The history of the last ten years is littered with pieces of paper which were launched with equal hope and fanfare, but which, for want of international will to make them mean anything, have ended in nothing.

I need to remind us that the effects of the stasis that has gripped Bosnia this last decade are not confined to Bosnia alone.

Last Saturday in Belgrade there was a huge gathering in the presence of the Patriarch and the Serbian President to celebrate the founding, not Bosnia, but of Republika Srpska.

In Zagreb the president of the Croatian HDZ expressed his support for renewed calls by Bosnian Croats for a third entity.

In the Middle East there are now 330 young men from Bosnia to be found in Syria and Iraq under the banner of ISIS. This, by the way, from a country of less than 4 million - about the size of Wales.

And of course Moscow continues to play Ukrainian mischief with Bosnian instability, wherever it can.

In the 1990s the world had to learn about the painful and bloody lesson that ignoring instability in Bosnia can have regional, even global consequences. Do we really have to learn that all over again, a quarter of century later?

I am sorry to be so brutal.

But I fear that during these last ten years the International Community and Bosnia have been locked in a kind of diplomatic ground hog day waltz. We sweep off into the same old dance together, accompanied by the same old expressions of hope and determination, only to find ourselves back at the same old place which we then declare as somewhere entirely new.

We have consistently – and it seems now will repeatedly – replaced killing the dragon of Bosnia’s dysfunctionality, with offering it instead a series of small scale, diversionary reforms, in the vain hope that while the beast is looking the other way, we can nip in and save the maiden for her true destiny – marriage into the EU and NATO.

It hasn’t happened. And it won’t happen.

Now some even propose that actually it doesn’t have to happen at all. It will be good enough for us to just pretend it has happened. Then by some Brussels sleight of hand, an unreformed Bosnia can be quietly side-slipped into candidate status.

It seems an attractive short cut of course. Even though we know short cuts rarely work – as we have seen with other EU countries.

But it’s not a short-cut. It’s a myth.

For behind it I suspect is a willingness on the part of some EU states to declare success by welcoming Bosnia to candidate status. And then leaving her there – in limbo – forever.

Still a black hole of dysfunctionality and corruption.

Still wrecked with division and obstruction.

Still a source of recruits for ISIS.

But now semi-safely parked in a never-never land on the edge of Europe, where she can do minimum damage. A place which we in the International Community can never move forward. And from which we can never disengage.

That remarkable EU civil servant who used to work with me in my days as the High Representative, Reinhardt Priebe, used to say that Europe was not just a union of ideals, it was also a union of standards.

Quite so!

And one of those standards surely is functionality. Is there not a minimum standard of functionality which is required for EU membership?

Of course there is.

So why do we go on dodging the issue in Bosnia?

Why after such extraordinary progress towards a functional Bosnian state for the first 10 years after Dayton did we abandon the effort in these last ten years?

No-one is suggesting a centralised Bosnia.

No-one is suggesting either that there should be a return to the Bonn powers to move things forward – though they should be preserved in case things begin to move dangerously backwards, because some destructive elements seek to re-interpret Dayton to support division rather than unity.

No-one is suggesting either abolishing the entities.

A functional Bosnia will look and feel much more like highly decentralised Belgium, than over-centralised Britain.

But it must be functional – and it cannot be constantly held hostage by those who wish it to fail.

What is needed now from the International Community – and especially from Brussels – is not new thinking but rather a new courage to face down Bosnia’s separatists and obstructionists and a new will to use, in a united and coherent fashion, the immense leverage to move things forward which we can mobilise, both in the country and in the region.

If I wanted to get things done in my time in Bosnia, it was not just to Brussels that I turned, it was also to Zagreb and Belgrade. No policy for Bosnia will work unless it is anchored within an overall policy for the region.

My other key experience in Bosnia was that if the International Community is hesitant, risk averse and divided, there is nothing it can achieve.

But if it is united, purposeful and determined, there is nothing it cannot achieve.

10 years ago, after a decade of extraordinary progress in Bosnia, the International Community – and especially Brussels – took its foot of the accelerator and its eye off the road.

What we need now is change of gear and direction.

Or alternatively we can, of course, go on as we are.

Hoping to distract Bosnia from the task of functional reform, but in reality distracting ourselves.

Hoping for the better in the future, in the face of all experience to the contrary from the past.

Ducking the central issue of functionality because we have allowed local players to frighten us away from it.

And launching ourselves into another decade in which Bosnia sinks further and further into the black hole, while we in Europe and the International Community remain further and further away from the task to which we laid our hand twenty long years ago – helping Bosnia towards the only peace and prosperity it can have, as a full, functional and proud member of the Euro-Atlantic Brussels institutions.