Nicholas M. Hill:

Okrenuti leđa uskogrudnoj politici

Sposobnost političke elite da manipuliše javnim mnenjem koristeći etničku retoriku kao mamac postepeno slabi. To danas možemo vidjeti u Banjaluci. To smo vidjeli nakon poplava prošle godine. Zato sam malo veći optimista danas nego kada sam stigao. Zato ova zemlja jednog dana može biti energična ekonomska sila, njene planine raj za turiste, a njeni gradovi centri za proizvodnju softwarea. Prije toga, međutim, puno posla treba uraditi.

16.07.2015.

Nicholas M. Hill:

Moving Beyond Narrow-Minded Politics

The capacity of the political class to manipulate public opinion through ethnic-baiting rhetoric is gradually waning. We see this in Banja Luka today. We saw this after the floods last year. That is why I am slightly more optimistic than when I arrived. That is why this country someday can be an exciting economic engine, a tourist wonderland in the hills and a software producing juggernaut in the towns. But there is a lot of work to be done first.

16.07.2015.

Ovo su ozbiljna vremena za Bosnu i Hercegovinu i, ustvari, za cijeli region, i teško vrijeme za mene jer odlazim iz Ambasade nakon tri godine. Iskreno sam govorio o situaciji ovdje za vrijeme mog mandata i tako ću uraditi i ovdje. Ne mogu reći da je zemlja značajno napredovala na putu reformi u protekle tri godine, ali uslovi za postizanje napretka i dalje postoje. Fokus treba biti na unapređenju ekonomije i otvaranju radnih mjesta, te smanjivanju mogućnosti za političke stranke da koriste državna preduzeća kao sredstva za nagrađivanje sljedbenika i izvlačenje gotovine iz njih. Unapređenje klime za investiranje i uvođenje većeg stepena političke i ekonomske transparentnosti ključni su za budućnost ove zemlje. Pošto ove vrste reformi nisu popularne kod aktuelnih političkih stranaka, sporo se dolazi do konsenzusa o stvarnim reformama. Nažalost, etničke politike – koje zajedno sa korupcijom čine dvije strane iste medalje – i dalje muče one koji žele da ova zemlja uđe u 21. stoljeće. Mada gospodin Dodik to može tako shvatiti, ja ne govorim samo o mahinacijama predsjednika Republike Srpske kada osuđujem etničke politike.

Da bi ova zemlja napredovala u budućnosti, tri najveće stranke koje predstavljaju tri konstitutivna naroda – SDA, HDZ i SNSD – ne moraju odustajati od etničkih pitanja, ali ih moraju ostaviti po strani kako bi se posvetile hitnom rješavanju ekonomskih problema koji uništavaju živote građana. SDA je trenutno najveća stranka koja predstavlja najveću etničku skupinu i u tom smislu možda ima najveću odgovornost da prigrli više BiH-orijentiranu, a manje bošnjačko-orijentiranu platformu za napredak. Bilo istina ili ne, posmatrači, od kojih su mnogi Bošnjaci, kažu mi da je SDA trenutno čvrsto pod kontrolom stare garde koja želi promovirati uskogrudniju, tvrdolinijašku agendu. Možda pretjerujem, jer je na neki način stranački predsjednik Izetbegović pokazao velikodušnost prilikom uspostave koalicije sa srpskim, a posebno sa hrvatskim partnerima, ali demografija zemlje nalaže da SDA bude inkluzivnija i da stalno uvažava multietničku realnost zemlje. Da li je to opravdano ili ne, da li je to rezultat besmislene političke manipulacije, oni koji nisu Bošnjaci postaju nervozni kada govore o budućnosti u državi u kojoj su u manjini.

Ima primjera kada bi SDA mogla pokazati veću privrženost multietničkoj državi na mnogo konkretniji način. Uzmimo u obzir besmislena prepucavanja koja su uslijedila nakon hapšenja Nasera Orića u Švicarskoj. Orić je izručen BiH i treba biti procesuiran u potpunosti u skladu sa zakonom. Da bi trajno učvrstilo reputaciju vjerodostojne institucije, državno tužilaštvo pod vođstvom glavnog tužioca za kojeg se uveliko smatra da je pod ozbiljnim uticajem bošnjačkih političkih snaga, treba revnosno raditi na detaljnom sagledavanju svih dokaza i njihovom predstavljanju sudu. Ako Orić bude proglašen krivim, ništa ne bi više učvrstilo kredibilitet državnih institucija od njegovog slanja u zatvor. Također ima pritužbi da u Tužilaštvu radi previše slijepih sljedbenika SDA. Bilo da je to istina ili ne, SDA mora voditi računa o percepciji javnosti i raditi na tome da se ona izmijeni. Slično tome, u dogovorima o podjeli vlasti, SDA ima vodeću ulogu u odabiru novog direktora OSA-e. Pozicija direktora obavještajne službe je iznimno osjetljivo pitanje za sve građane ove zemlje i SDA ne bi trebala nastojati na tu poziciju postaviti nekoga ko će ovu instituciju pretvoriti u instrument stranke.

These are urgent times for Bosnia and Herzegovina and for that matter the entire region, a difficult time for me to be departing post after three years. I have spoken frankly about the situation here during my tour, and I will continue to be open here. I cannot say the country has moved significantly down the reform path during the past three years, but the conditions for advancing reform exist. The focus should be on improving economic performance and job creation, and reducing the capacity of the political parties to use state-owned enterprises as vehicles to reward cronies and siphon off cash. Improving the investment climate and bringing greater political and economic transparency are essential for this country’s future. Because these sorts of reforms are not popular with the incumbent political parties, a consensus for real reform has been slow to emerge. Unfortunately, ethnic politics—which with corruption are two sides of the same coin—have continued to vex those who want to see this country move into the 21st century. And although Mr. Dodik may think so, I am not only talking about the RS president’s machinations when I decry ethnic politics.

For this country to thrive in the future, the three biggest parties which represent the three constituent peoples—SDA, HDZ, and SNSD—do not need to abandon ethnic issues, but they need to put them to the side to attend to the more urgent economic problems which are destroying peoples’ lives. SDA at the moment is the biggest party that represents the biggest ethnic group, and in that sense may arguably have the biggest responsibility to embrace a more BiH-oriented and less Bosniak-oriented platform going forward. Fairly or unfairly, observers, including many Bosniaks, have told me that SDA is now firmly under the control of the old guard which wants to advance a more insular, hardline agenda. This could be an overstatement, and in some ways party president Izetbegovic has shown magnanimity in coalition building with his Serb and especially Croat partners, but the country’s demographics point to a need for SDA be more inclusive and to celebrate regularly the country’s multi-ethnic reality. Whether it is justified or not, or the result of crass political manipulation, non-Bosniaks become nervous about their future in a state where their numbers are smaller.

There are examples where SDA can demonstrate greater commitment to a multi-ethnic state in much more concrete fashion. Take the squabbling that followed the arrest in Switzerland of Naser Oric. Oric has been returned to BiH and he should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. To build a more enduring credibility, the state prosecutor’s office under the leadership of a Chief Prosecutor largely believed to be heavily influenced by Bosniak political forces, needs to work diligently to ensure that the evidence is carefully considered and presented in court. And if Oric is found guilty, nothing would do more to enhance the credibility of state level institutions than to see him go to jail. There are also complaints that the prosecutor’s office has too many strong-willed SDA acolytes on its staff. Whether true or not, SDA needs to worry about the perception and work to change it. Similarly, in the power-sharing deals worked out, SDA has the lead in selecting the new head of OSA. Who is the head of the intelligence service is extremely sensitive for all citizens of this country and SDA should not be seeking to install somebody who will turn the institution into a vessel of the party.

Potreba za širim konsenzusom

Prije desetak godina sam službovao u Zagrebu i bio zapanjen dvostranačkom podrškom za evro-atlantsku agendu, uključujući podršku tadašnjeg premijera Ivice Račana i lidera opozicije Ive Sanadera. Široki konsenzus političkih stranaka bio je od ključne važnosti za brzi napredak Hrvatske, prvo prema NATO savezu, a potom i članstvu u Evropskoj Uniji. Ovo spominjem samo zato jer se radi o nevjerovatnom kontrastu u poređenju sa politikom Hrvata u BiH danas koja ima tendenciju da bude samosažaljevajuća i nekonstruktivna. I dok Hrvatima prijeko treba zaposlenje i ekonomske mogućnosti, dominantno političko rukovodstvo HDZ-a jedva da se kreće, stalno vrteći priču o “nejednakosti Hrvata” i kako je treba riješiti reformom izbornog zakona. Reforma izbornog zakona jeste važna i ona se mora svakako rješavati u ovoj zemlji da bi ušla u EU, ali ta reforma ne mora potrošiti sav kisik u prostoriji i onemogućiti aktivnosti na mnogo urgentnijim ekonomskim reformama koje su ovoj zemlji potrebne.

Stranački lider i član Predsjedništva Čović je uporan u sklapanju dogovora, ali je previše distanciran od najnovijih ekonomskih reformskih aktivnosti. Jedini ekonomski prioritet kojem je stranka posvetila pažnju nakon izbora je imenovanje stranačkih ljudi u unosne odbore državnih preduzeća. A nezainteresiranost koju pokazuje prema reformskoj agendi doprinosi jedino ugrožavanju položaja Hrvata u BiH. Hrvati, koji gotovo svi imaju pasoše EU, u potrazi sa poslom odlaze u druge dijelove Evrope. Obitelji su razdvojene po generacijskim linijama. U poređenju s brojem Hrvata, oni imaju ogroman politički uticaj. Imaju i ogromne ekonomske prednosti s obzirom na blizinu profitabilnih primorskih turističkih mjesta, pa ipak narativ koji posljednjih godina rabi HDZ je uvelike negativan i rigidan. To se mora promijeniti ili će vodstvo HDZ-a riješiti “hrvatsko pitanje” drugim sredstvima. Hrvati će odlaziti iz ove zemlje i jedino pitanje će biti ko će otići posljednji da pogasi svjetla u Hercegovini.

Need for Broad Consensus

A dozen years ago I served in Zagreb and was struck by the bipartisan support for the Euro-Atlantic agenda, including of then Prime Minister Ivica Racan and opposition leader Ivo Sanadar. The broad consensus of the political parties was instrumental in Croatia’s rapid progress, first toward NATO and then toward European Union membership. I raise this only because it serves as invidious contrast to the politics of the Croat community in BiH today, which tends to be self-pitying and unconstructive. While Croats desperately need jobs and economic opportunity, the dominant HDZ political leadership plods along, pedaling a story of “inequality of the Croats” and how this has to be righted by electoral reform. Electoral reform is important, and it has to be addressed in any case for this country to advance eventually into the EU, but it does not need to suck all the oxygen out of the room and prevent work on the more urgent economic reforms this country needs.

Party leader and presidency member Covic is a persistent deal maker, but he has been too detached from recent economic reform efforts. The only economic priority the party has shown since elections has been to put its cronies onto lucrative boards of state-owned enterprises. And the indifference shown toward the reform agenda has served only to diminish the Croat position in BiH. Croats, virtually all of whom have EU passports, are leaving for other parts of Europe in search of jobs. Families are dividing along generational lines. In comparison to their numbers, Croats have enormous political clout. They are blessed with enormous economic advantages, given their proximately to a lucrative coastal tourism industry, and yet the narrative HDZ has advanced in recent years is largely negative and insular. This needs to change, or the HDZ leadership will have solved the “Croat question” by other means. There will be no Croats left and the only question for them will be who turns off the lights in Herzegovina on their way out the door.

Jednom nogom na aerodromskoj pisti

Na reformskom putu zemlje najveća prepreka je trenutno u Republici Srpskoj, gdje predsjednik Milorad već godinama igra ulogu koju je teško shvatiti. Bio sam predodređen da budem naklonjen Dodiku. Prvi put sam prisustvovao razgovorima o njemu na sastanku u Belom Dvoru u Beogradu, kada je tadašnji američki izaslanik za Balkan razgovarao sa Slobodanom Miloševićem o provedbi Dejtonskog sporazuma. Na svaki pomen Dodikovog imena, srbijanski moćnik bi napravio podrugljivu grimasu, a moje poštovanje prema tada mladom SNSD lideru je raslo. O Dodiku, navodnom ratnom šverceru, pričalo se da se slaže sa svima, a u doba kada su etničke tenzije bile na vrhuncu on je bio spas i lijek. Rečeno mi je da se neki Bošnjaci kunu da im je njegova intervencija spasila živote. Ali, nažalost, švercerski instinkt je prevladao. Rukovođenje je postalo stalna trka za ličnu finansijsku dobit. Smjenjivale su se priče o korupciji i kroz tu prizmu njegovo je ponašanje postajalo sve lakše za shvatiti i predvidjeti. Zapravo, prelako za predvidjeti.

I baš kao što je Milošević na pola karijere od socijalističkog apartčika postao nacionalistički huškač zarad konsolidacije sopstvene moći, Dodik je uradio isto – postajao je sve vatreniji u svojoj retorici dok je korupcija rasla, a ekonomija klizila u ambis. Stopa od 25% nezaposlenosti, 60% nezaposlenosti među mladima, pajdaški ugovori o izgradnji, Bobar banka – ne postoji niti jedna priča o lošem upravljanju sa koje se pažnja ne odvlači ksenofobičnom tiradom ili imenovanjem škole po Radovanu Karadžiću. Kako javnost sve više uviđa da je ova retorika neautentična, Dodik postaje nervozniji. Predlaže referendum o pravosuđu? Predvidivost njegovog ishoda je stopostotna, kao i njegova nezakonitost. Predsjednik RS želi da se održi na vlasti. Želi da živi u svijetu u kojem je on taj koji kontroliše sudove, sudije, tužioce, policiju, revizore banaka…pretpostavljam i revizore Integral inžinjeringa. Da kojim slučajem njegova zapaljiva retorika ponovo izazove izazove požar u zemlji, predsjednik Republike Srpske već je jednom nogom na aerodromskoj pisti u Banjaluci. Već sutra će možda piti kaficu sa Mirom i Markom i pričati o „papcima“ koje su ostavili na cjedilu. Nemojte se zavaravati: nacionalisti motivirani pohlepom mogu biti izuzetno opasni po narod kojeg tvrde da štite.

Rođen sam u Beogradu i proveo sam više od 12 godina života u ovom regionu i jako mi je stalo do njegove budućnosti. Nikada nisam imao tako sjajne lokalne kolege kao što sam imao ovdje, bez obzira da li su iz Beograda ili Banja Luke, Sarajeva ili Zagreba. Upoznao sam veliki broj studenata u regionu zahvaljujući svojoj supruzi koja je univerzitetski profesor jezika. Svi su oni pametni i domišljati i uglavnom bez predrasuda. Ulice su sigurne, a ljudi iskreni. Kulturu korupcije je, nažalost, nametnula politička elita. Ali, sposobnost političke elite da manipuliše javnim mnenjem koristeći etničku retoriku kao mamac postepeno slabi. To danas možemo vidjeti u Banjaluci. To smo vidjeli nakon poplava prošle godine. Zato sam malo veći optimista danas nego kada sam stigao. Zato ova zemlja jednog dana može biti energična ekonomska sila, njene planine raj za turiste, a njeni gradovi centri za proizvodnju softwarea. Prije toga, međutim, puno posla treba uraditi.

One Foot on the Tarmac

The biggest obstacle to the country’s reform path right now is in Republika Srpska, where entity president Milorad Dodik has for years played an unfathomable role. I was pre-disposed to like Dodik. The first time I ever participated in a discussion about him was in Bijeli Dvor in Belgrade, when the then U.S. Balkans envoy discussed Dayton implementation with Slobodan Milosevic. Every time the Serbian strongman grimaced at mention of Dodik’s name, my respect for the then-young SNSD leader went up. A purported wartime smuggler, Dodik famously got along with everybody, and when ethnic hatreds were at a peak, he was the right antidote for the times. There are Bosniaks, I am told, who swear his intervention saved their lives. Tragically, however, the smuggler pedigree got the best of him. Governance became a relentless pursuit of personal financial gain. Corruption stories mounted, and through this prism his behavior became less unfathomable and more predictable. Too predictable.

And just as Milosevic flipped mid-career from socialist era apparatchik to nationalist firebrand to consolidate his hold on power, Dodik has done the same-becoming ever more fiery in his rhetoric as the corruption mounted and the economy slid into the abyss. Twenty five percent unemployment; 60 percent unemployment among youth; sweetheart construction deals; Bobar Bank—there is no story of bad governance which cannot be countered with a xenophobic screed or a school named after Radovan Karadzic. As the public has increasingly caught on to the fact that the rhetoric is inauthentic, Dodik has become ever more nervous. Proposing a referendum on the judiciary? It is as 100 percent predictable as it is illegal. The RS president wants to preserve himself in power. He wants to live in a world where he controls the courts, he controls the judges, he controls the prosecutors, the police, the bank examiners. And presumably the auditors of Integral Inžinjering. And if his incendiary rhetoric tips the country back into conflagration, the RS president has one foot on the tarmac in Banja Luka. He can be sipping coffee with Mira and Marko tomorrow, talking about the “papaks” they left behind. Make no mistake: nationalists motivated by greed can be extremely dangerous to the people they profess to help.

I was born in Belgrade and have spent over 12 years of my life in this region and care deeply about its future. I have never had such wonderful local colleagues as I have had here, whether in Belgrade or Banja Luka, or Sarajevo or Zagreb. I have met so many students throughout this region through my wife, a university language instructor. They are bright and witty, and generally devoid of prejudice. The streets are safe and the people are honest. The culture of corruption, unfortunately, is imposed by the political class. But the capacity of the political class to manipulate public opinion through ethnic-baiting rhetoric is gradually waning. We see this in Banja Luka today. We saw this after the floods last year. That is why I am slightly more optimistic than when I arrived. That is why this country someday can be an exciting economic engine, a tourist wonderland in the hills and a software producing juggernaut in the towns. But there is a lot of work to be done first.

Gost blogger zamjenik ambasadorice SAD-a u BiH Nicholas M. Hill

The guest blogger today is Deputy Chief of Mission Nicholas M. Hill

Tekst je prvobitno objavljen na blogu ambasadorice SAD-a u BiH (08.07.2015).

This article was originally published on the USA Ambassador to BiH blog (08.07.2015).

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